城市人工智能发展对个人劳动参与和工作时长的影响——基于人工智能技术密度的发现  

The Impact of City-Level AI Development on Individuals'Labor Force Participation and Working Hours in China:Evidence from AI Technology Density

作　　者：沈可[1] 石笑峰 Shen Ke;Shi Xiaofeng

机构地区：[1]复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2025年第2期45-61,共17页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“人口老龄化对科技创新的影响机制与战略协同研究”(编号:21&ZD189)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：相对于传统的技术进步,人工智能在各产业领域的通用性和渗透性更强,因而对劳动力市场产生着多元而深远的影响。文章基于人工智能专利数据和中国家庭追踪调查数据,系统考察城市人工智能技术密度对当地劳动年龄人口的劳动参与和工作时长的影响。研究发现,人工智能通过挤出劳动力和阻碍劳动力进入两条路径显著降低了劳动年龄人口的劳动参与概率,并缩短了就业者的周工作时长。异质性分析表明,人工智能对中老年、低技能劳动力的劳动参与挤出效应更强,对青年和高技能就业者则表现为更强的工时缩减效应;在工资水平较高的地区,相应效应更为明显。进一步分析发现,人工智能有效降低了就业者的过度劳动发生风险和过度劳动程度。可见,人工智能与人力劳动存在竞争和协作的双重关系。文章建议,在人工智能时代进一步加强政府、企业和高校的多元协作,帮助弱势劳动者抵御失业风险、提升劳动者的技能匹配度;同时,积极利用人工智能的工时缩减效应,以技术创新赋能高质量就业。Utilizing the city-level Artificial Intelligence(AI)patent data and individual data from China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),this paper systematically examines the influence of AI on micro-level labor characteristics in China.The results show that the Al development significantly reduces individuals'likelihood of participating in labor force and decreases the weekly working hours for those employed.AI simultaneously triggers the"labor market exit effect"and the"barrier-to-entry effect".Our analyses also show that the impact of AI development on individuals'working characteristics varies notably across different groups.Specifically,it has a stronger employment replacement effect for older and low-skilled workers,a stronger working-hour reduction effect for younger and high-skilled workers,and a stronger negative effect on both labor force participation and working hours in high-wage cities.Further analyses show that AI development significantly lowers the probability and extent of overwork.These findings showcase both a competitive and collaborative relationship between AI and human workers.

关 键 词：人工智能 劳动参与 工作时长 过度劳动 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]