鄱阳湖流域气象干旱向水文干旱滞后传播的时空模式分析  

Spatiotemporal propagation pattern of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Poyang Lake Basin

作　　者：肖丽英[1] 郭永程 唐颖滢 王萍根 XIAO Liying;GUO Yongcheng;TANG Yingying;WANG Pinggeng(School of Hydraulic Engineering,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌工程学院水利工程学院,江西南昌330099

出　　处：《南昌工程学院学报》2025年第1期1-7,共7页Journal of Nanchang Institute of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52069015,52069014);江西省学位与研究生教育教学改革研究项目(JXYJG-2021-210)。

摘　　要：研究气象干旱向水文干旱滞后传播的时空模式,对于认识在变化环境下干旱传播的规律和机制、建立水文干旱预警系统具有重要意义。干旱传播研究尚处于探索阶段,其传播机制及其驱动过程仍然不清晰。本研究采用12个月尺度的标准化降水指数与标准化径流指数,结合交叉小波分析,量化分析了鄱阳湖流域气象干旱向水文干旱的传播时间。结果表明:鄱阳湖流域气象-水文干旱传播时间约为1~5个月,各子流域传播时滞趋势存在差异;干旱传播时滞在赣江流域延长,在抚河、饶河与修水流域缩短;传播时滞的差异受气候、大气环流与大型水库等驱动因素综合影响。Studying the spatiotemporal pattern of the lagged propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought is significant for understanding the patterns and mechanisms of drought propagation under changing environments and for establishing a hydrological drought warning system.The study of drought propagation is still in the exploratory stage,and its propagation mechanisms and driving processes remain unclear.This paper uses the standardized precipitation index and the standardized runoff index at 12-month scale,combining cross-wavelet analysis with wavelet transform energy spectrum analysis,to analyze the lagged propagation time of meteorological-hydrological drought in the Poyang Lake basin.The results show that the lagged propagation time of meteorological-hydrological drought in the Poyang Lake basin is about 1 to 5 months,with differences in the lagged propagation trends among the sub-basins.The lagged propagation time is extended in the Ganjiang River Basin and shortened in the Fuhe River,Raohe River,and Xiushui River basins.The differences in lagged propagation time are influenced by a combination of factors such as the monsoon climate,atmospheric circulation,and large reservoirs.

关 键 词：气象干旱 水文干旱 干旱指数 交叉小波分析 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]