应用SARIMA模型评估新型冠状病毒感染疫情及防控措施对手足口病流行趋势的影响  

Evaluating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the prevention and control measures on the epidemic trend of hand,foot,and mouth disease using the SARIMA model

作　　者：陈亿雄[1] 任萌 张雪 张晟 王梓琪 杜向军 张新东[1] CHEN Yi-xiong;REN Meng;ZHANG Xue;ZHANG Sheng;WANG Zi-qi;DU Xiang-jun;ZHANG Xin-dong(Bao’an District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518101,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]深圳市宝安区疾病预防控制中心,广东深圳518101 [2]中山大学公共卫生学院(深圳)

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2025年第5期818-825,共8页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：广东省深圳市宝安区科技创新局资助项目(2023JD148);广东省深圳市宝安区医学会资助项目(BAYXH2024070)。

摘　　要：目的 探讨新型冠状病毒感染疫情及防控措施对深圳市宝安区手足口病流行趋势的影响。方法 基于深圳市宝安区2014-2019年(大流行前)及2020-2022年(大流行及“乙类甲管”期)的手足口病发病率数据,利用季节性差分自回归移动平均模型分别建立反事实模型,预测2020-2023年及2023年(持续流行及“乙类乙管”阶段)的手足口病发病率,并与实际发病率比较。结果 与预测结果相比,2020-2022年的手足口病实际发病规模下降45.29%~85.71%,且时间分布特点发生变化。手足口病发病率在2023年迅速回升,全年发病规模较基于“乙类甲管期”的预测值提升125.73%,但低于基于新冠大流行前数据预测值。结论 新冠疫情及防控措施显著影响深圳市宝安区手足口病流行趋势,短期内降低发病率,但长期缺乏免疫刺激可能导致发病率上升。建议持续监测手足口病流行趋势,特别是在防控措施放宽时应加强疫苗接种,以保护公众健康。Objective To explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the prevention and control measures on the epidemic trend of hand,foot,and mouth disease in Bao’an District,Shenzhen.Methods Based on the incidence data of hand,foot,and mouth disease in Bao’an District,Shenzhen from 2014 to 2019(pre-pandemic)and from 2020 to 2022(pandemic and“Class A Infectious Disease Management for Class B Infectious Diseases”period),counterfactual models were established respectively using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model to predict the incidence of hand,foot,and mouth disease in 2020 to 2023 and 2023(continuous epidemic and“Class B Infectious Disease Management”stage),followed by comparison with the actual incidence.Results Compared with the predicted results,the actual incidence scale of hand,foot,and mouth disease from 2020 to 2022 decreased by 45.29%to 85.71%,and the characteristics of time distribution changed.The incidence of hand,foot,and mouth disease rebounded rapidly in 2023,and the annual incidence scale increased by 125.73%compared with the predicted value based on the“Class A Infectious Disease Management for Class B Infectious Diseases”period,but was lower than the predicted value based on the data before the COVID-19 pandemic.Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic and prevention and control measures significantly affected the epidemic trend of hand,foot,and mouth disease in Bao’an District,Shenzhen,reducing the incidence in the short term,but the lack of immune stimulation in the long term may lead to an increase in the incidence.It is recommended to continuously monitor the epidemic trend of hand,foot,and mouth disease,and especially strengthen vaccination when prevention and control measures are relaxed to protect public health.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒感染 手足口病 SARIMA模型 流行病学分析 

分 类 号：R725.1[医药卫生—儿科]