人群接触和移动模式对传染病传播的影响  

The impact of human contact and mobility patterns on infectious disease transmission

作　　者：李文忻 明博文 余宏杰[1] 张娟娟 LI Wen-xin;MING Bo-wen;YU Hong-jie;ZHANG Juan-juan(Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,Fudan University,Shanghai 200032,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室/公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室,上海200032

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2025年第5期922-930,共9页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划培育项目(92369118)。

摘　　要：人群接触与移动模式,是传染病传播的重要社会行为驱动因素,有助于理解病原体在人与人之间传播,并通过人口流动引起疾病暴发甚至大流行的可能性。定量测量人与人之间的接触模式和移动模式,才能准确理解传染病如何在人际间传播及其空间扩散规律,采取何种干预措施有效。将人群接触与移动数据与传染病动力学建模相结合可显著提高模型预测的准确性,为模拟传染病的传播动态和预测预警提供关键参数。本文综述了国内外人群接触和移动模式相关研究进展,总结了人群接触和移动行为对传染病传播的重要意义,并指出该领域存在的困难与挑战。旨在呼吁加强对人群接触和移动相关研究的重视,为实现传染病的预测预警与精准防控提供重要科学支撑。Human contact and mobility patterns are significant social behavioral drivers of infectious disease transmission.They aid in understanding how pathogens spread from person to person and the potential for disease outbreaks or even pandemics due to human mobility.Quantitative measurements of interpersonal contact and mobility patterns are essential for accurately understanding how infectious diseases spread among individuals and their spatial diffusion patterns,as well as for determining effective intervention measures.Integrating human contact and mobility data with infectious disease dynamics modeling can significantly enhance the accuracy of model predictions,providing key parameters for simulating disease transmission dynamics and forecasting alerts.This paper reviews the progress of research on human contact and mobility patterns both domestically and internationally,summarizes the critical importance of these behaviors in the transmission of infectious diseases,and highlights the difficulties and challenges present in this field.The aim is to call for increased attention to research on human contact and mobility,providing crucial scientific support for the prediction,warning,and precise control of infectious diseases.

关 键 词：人群接触 人群移动 呼吸道传染病 传染病建模 预测预警与防控 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]