不确定性冲击、结构性失业与稳就业政策——基于公共—企业两部门定向搜寻匹配模型的研究  

Uncertainty Shocks,Structural Unemployment and Employment Stability Policies:Based on a Directed Searching and Matching Model with Public and Entrepresis Sectors

作　　者：林滨 孙乾 王弟海[2] LIN Bin;SUN Qian;WANG Dihai(School of International Business,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics;School of Economics,Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院,上海201620 [2]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《金融研究》2024年第11期1-19,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(72121002);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72403090);上海市哲学社会科学青年项目(2020EJL003);上海市晨光学者项目(20CG64)的资助。

摘　　要：经济不确定性是导致失业率特别是青年失业率上升的重要原因。选择公共部门就业是劳动力对冲不确定性的自然反应,但鲜有研究探讨不确定性冲击通过扭曲劳动力求职行为对经济波动产生的影响。经验证据表明,不确定性冲击下,求稳心态使劳动力更加偏向公共部门岗位,导致公共部门劳动力市场供求关系更趋紧张,产生结构性失业。基于公共部门—企业部门二元劳动力市场划分,本文构建包含两部门定向搜寻匹配的NK-DSGE模型,研究发现,不确定性冲击降低总需求,减少企业部门的工资水平和岗位数量,使更多劳动力涌入公共部门求职,导致结构性失业,加剧失业率上升,放大不确定性冲击对宏观经济波动的影响。数值模拟分析表明,不确定性冲击导致的结构性失业约占失业总效应的40%。政策评估结果表明,稳就业政策能够优化劳动力市场配置,减少结构性失业,有效应对不确定性冲击。本文丰富了不确定性冲击通过劳动力市场摩擦影响经济波动的机制研究,为解决好结构性就业矛盾、促进高质量充分就业提供参考。In recent years,high unemployment rate,particularly among the youth,has drawn widespread societal attention in China.China's economy has long exhibited a dual labor market structure segmented between the public and private sectors.The stability and higher wages of public sector jobs have fostered a strong preference for public employment,making it a crucial mechanism for workers to hedge against market uncertainties.With rising economic uncertainty,labor market choices—especially among university graduates—have shifted increasingly toward public sector jobs,fueling social phenomena such as“Civil Service Exam Craze”,“Public Institution Exam Craze”,and“Teaching Certification Craze”.In response to this severe employment situation,the central government has implemented various employment stabilization policies,focusing on fiscal measures to secure job opportunities,particularly for young workers.However,it remains unclear whether these policies can effectively mitigate preference for public employment,reduce structural unemployment,and enhance fiscal efficiency.To address these questions,this paper conducts an in-depth empirical and theoretical analysis to explore how uncertainty shocks distort labor market allocation,generate structural unemployment,and amplify macroeconomic fluctuations.Furthermore,we develop and quantitatively evaluate various types of simple rule-based employment stabilization policies from the perspectives of economic cycles,welfare costs,and government expenditure multipliers.Empirical evidence suggests that the primary reasons for the preference for public sector jobs are their stability and higher wages.However,the limited supply of public sector vacancies increases the likelihood of unemployment among those pursuing such positions.Empirical analysis,which matches city-level uncertainty indicators with individual-level labor data,shows that higher economic uncertainty strengthens the preference for public sector employment,thereby exacerbating the overall unemployment rate.Bas

关 键 词：不确定性冲击 结构性失业 稳就业政策 搜寻匹配模型 NK-DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]