跨境电商与城市非正规就业  

Cross-border E-commerce and Urban Informal Employment

作　　者：黄漓江 李长英[2] HUANG Lijiang;LI Changying

机构地区：[1]山东大学商学院 [2]山东大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2025年第3期76-94,共19页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“平台竞争策略对企业创新的影响及规制边界研究”(23AJY006);山东省自然科学基金项目“数字经济背景下企业的创新机制与实现路径研究”(ZR2023MG006);山东省软科学项目“数据要素赋能企业创新研究”(2023RZB01012)。

摘　　要：突出就业优先导向,多措并举稳就业,是当前政府就业工作的基本方针。近年来,我国非正规就业规模持续增长,已经超过了正规就业规模,成为劳动力就业的重要组成部分。本文使用1999—2020年我国地级及以上城市数据和人口普查数据,以政府设立跨境电商综试区政策为准自然实验,考察了跨境电商综试区政策对城市非正规就业的影响。研究发现:堆叠双重差分法的因果效应估计表明,设立跨境电商综试区显著促进了城市非正规就业,并且跨境电商综试区政策产生了11.71%的非正规就业增长。跨境电商综试区政策显著促进了经济发展水平较低城市、数字基础设施水平较高城市和营商环境良好城市的非正规就业,而对经济发展水平较高城市、数字基础设施水平较低城市和营商环境落后城市的非正规就业影响不显著。跨境电商综试区政策通过促进出口贸易、产业集聚和正规就业三条途径增加了城市非正规就业。本文研究结论对于政府通过发展跨境电商稳就业和促就业具有重要的政策启示。Highlighting the employment-first orientation and adopting multiple measures simultaneously to stabilize employment are the fundamental guidelines of the current government's employment work.In recent years,the scale of informal employment in China has been continuously increasing and has already exceeded that of formal employment,becoming an important part of the labor force's employment.This paper uses the data of prefecture-level and above cities in China from 1999 to 2020 and the population census data,taking the policy of the government's establishment of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones as a quasi-natural experiment,and examines the impact of the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone policy on urban informal employment.The study finds that the causal effect estimation using the stacked difference-in-differences method shows that the establishment of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones significantly promotes urban informal employment,and the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone policy has led to an 11.71% growth in informal employment.The cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone policy significantly promotes informal employment in cities with a low level of economic development,cities with a high level of digital infrastructure,and cities with a good business environment,while having no significant impact on informal employment in cities with a high level of economic development,cities with a low level of digital infrastructure,and cities with a backward business environment.The cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone policy has increased urban informal employment through three channels:promoting export trade,industrial agglomeration,and formal employment.The research conclusions of this paper have important policy implications for the government to stabilize and promote employment through the development of cross-border e-commerce.

关 键 词：跨境电商 非正规就业 堆叠双重差分法 

分 类 号：F741[经济管理—国际贸易]