表外增长:美国经济增长模式解析及其启示  

Off-Balance Grow:American Economic Model and Its Revelation

作　　者：郭杰振 周原 Guo Jiezhen;Zhou Yuan

机构地区：[1]复旦大学中国研究院 [2]中国商用飞机有限责任公司

出　　处：《东方学刊》2024年第4期52-74,125,共24页Dongfang Journal

摘　　要：二战后,美国经济的增长呈现出一种新发展趋势:经济增长的表外化,即以国民经济账户体系表外资源的扩张支撑表内支出的持续增长。国民经济账户体系以平均化的数字指标掩盖了上述趋势,如表内家庭部门收支平衡与表外收支恶化、表内企业利润增速放缓与表外投资带来的利润总额快速增长、表内政府支出平稳与表外债务的急剧膨胀。表内增长的表外化形成了一个又一个阻碍经济增长的藩篱,如家庭部门极端化的收入分配结构、私营公司部门的金融化活动与利润藏匿等。这种趋势迫使政府以三类债务的快速扩张为代价,被动承担越来越多的政策干预预期,极大地限制了政府通过再分配调节社会运转的功能,甚至把政府推向一次又一次的主权债务危机。美国增长理念的式微意味着我们需要重新考虑一个重大战略性问题:我们需要什么样的经济?Since WWⅡ,American economy growth was funded by more resources outside National Economic Accounts,we call it"off-balance grow"(abbreviated as OBG),this trend was covered by average number in NIPAs.Risk factors came worse,such as real household deficit,private corporation financialization,and surged debt ceiling,but all of these sectors are balanced in sum up.With OBG,we face more barricades from inequality among household and corporate profit transfer,while government was forced to took more interventions,at cost of surged treasury securities outstanding.As government intervention deepened,crisis on American sovereign debt may lead to new global financial crisis,American model is fading!Then,we face a new question,How to Fix Our Economy?

关 键 词：增长 报表 医疗 股票 并购 国债 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]