一种改进的多边价格比较链式方法  

An Improved Chain Method of Multilateral Price Comparison

作　　者：谢长 范冰冰 Xie Chang;Fan Bingbing

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学统计学院经济统计系 [2]安徽省桐城市天城高级中学

出　　处：《统计研究》2025年第3期32-46,共15页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“国民核算视角下生态系统服务核算的理论方法研究”(23BTJ027);国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球生产核算的理论、方法和中国实践研究”(20&ZD134)。

摘　　要：链式方法是近年来国际价格和物量比较领域重点发展的一类购买力平价(PPP)汇总方法。本文在系统研究现有链式方法的链接机理及局限性的基础上,明确其特征性内涵及重要性,并提出一种度量国家间经济距离的二元相似性指数以及满足可加性的链式方法——可加的最小距离(AMD)法,并进一步对所有链式方法及吉尔利–卡米斯(GK)法进行优劣对较分析。理论研究发现,应根据所选择的指数类型来理解特征性的具体内涵,且提高特征性与降低PPP汇总方法测度偏误存在内在一致性。为识别国家间比较的链接路径,应构建包括价格结构和数量结构的二元相似性指数来度量国家间经济距离。实证研究发现,相比单维相似性指数,二元相似性指数下AMD法得到的国际平均价格对各经济体价格结构的代表性更好。相比已有链式方法和GK法,AMD法具备一定测度优势,如较小测度偏误,不易受大型经济体是否参与比较的影响,国际平均价格对各经济体价格结构的代表性更优等。本研究为链式方法的发展与应用提供新的理论和经验认识,改进的方法弥补了已有链式方法无法用于经济结构分析的不足。The chained method has been a key development in the field of international price and volume comparison in recent years as a type of purchasing power parity(PPP)aggregation method.Based on a systematic study of the linking mechanism and limitations of existing chained methods,this paper clarifies the characteristic connotation and its significance,and proposes a binary similarity index for measuring the economic distance between countries and a chained method that satisfies additivity—the additive minimum distance(AMD)method.Furthermore,it conducts a comparative analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of all chained methods and the Geary-Khamis(GK)method.Theoretical research reveals that the specific connotation of the characteristic should be understood based on the type of index selected,and there is an inherent consistency between enhancing the characteristic and reducing the measurement bias of the PPP aggregation method.To identify the linking path for comparisons between countries,a binary similarity index that includes both price structure and quantity structure should be constructed to measure the economic distance between countries.Empirical research shows that compared with the single-dimensional similarity index,the AMD method under the binary similarity index has better representativeness of the international average price for the price structure of each economy.Compared with existing chained methods and the GK method,the AMD method has certain measurement advantages,such as smaller measurement bias,less susceptibility to the participation of large economies in comparisons,and better representativeness of the international average price for the price structure of each economy.This study provides new theoretical and empirical insights for the development and application of chained methods,and the improved method makes up for the inability of existing chained methods to be used in economic structure analysis.

关 键 词：链式方法 购买力平价 特征性 可加性 

分 类 号：F222.5[经济管理—国际贸易]