金融开放、系统性金融风险与金融高质量发展  

Financial Opening-up,Systemic Financial Risk and High-quality Financial Development

作　　者：欧阳资生 邓淑文 蔡宏宇 Ouyang Zisheng;Deng Shuwen;Cai Hongyu

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学商学院 [2]湖南工商大学国际商学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2025年第3期76-89,共14页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国金融市场输入性风险的测度与预警研究”(23BTJ043)。

摘　　要：金融高水平开放可为金融业高质量发展提供有力支持。金融开放在产生积极作用的同时,也会加速系统性金融风险的积累,进而影响我国金融高质量发展。本文基于2005年第一季度至2020年第四季度数据,在测算我国金融开放度、系统性金融风险和金融高质量发展基础上,结合TVP-VAR模型研究金融开放、系统性金融风险与金融高质量发展三者之间的时变关系。结果表明,金融开放、系统性金融风险与金融高质量发展之间存在明显的时变特征,金融开放和系统性金融风险对金融高质量发展的影响主要集中在短期;2011年后金融开放对金融高质量发展的影响由负转为正;系统性金融风险在金融开放对金融高质量发展的影响渠道中起到中介作用。A high level of financial openness could provide strong support for the high-quality development of the financial industry.While playing a positive role,financial opening-up will also lead to the accumulation of systemic financial risks in the financial system,thus affecting the high-quality development of China's finance.This study utilizes data from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2020 to measure China's financial openness,systemic financial risk,and high-quality financial development index.A TVP-VAR model is then employed to explore the time-varying relationships among these three factors.The results show that,firstly,there are obvious time-varying characteristics among financial openness,systemic financial risk and high-quality financial development,and the impact of financial openness and systemic financial risks on financial high-quality development is mainly concentrated in the short term.Secondly,the impact of financial opening-up on the high-quality financial development has changed from negative to positive since 2011.Thirdly,systemic financial risk plays an intermediary role in the channel through which financial openness influences the high-quality development of finance.

关 键 词：TVP-VAR模型 金融开放 系统性金融风险 金融高质量发展 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]