货币政策调控与非金融企业杠杆率间的U型非线性关系探析  

Monetary Policy Management and Non-Financial Corporate Leverage Ratio:A U-Shaped Relationship

作　　者：谭小芬 宋佳馨 徐慧伦 李源 Tan Xiaofen;Song Jiaxin;Xu Huilun;Li Yuan

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院 [2]北京航空航天大学低碳治理与政策智能实验室可持续金融研究中心 [3]首都经济贸易大学金融学院 [4]中央财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2025年第3期90-102,共13页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“负利率时代金融系统性风险的识别和防范研究”(20&ZD101);教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助重大项目“中国非金融企业杠杆率的分化与结构性去杠杆研究”(18JHQ010)。

摘　　要：货币政策的整体基调对于企业杠杆率水平和结构具有重要作用。准确识别货币政策调控对企业杠杆率的影响,是实现货币政策灵活适度、精准有效的必要条件。本文构建了含有银行部门和非正规金融部门的局部均衡模型,探讨货币政策与非金融企业杠杆率之间的非线性关系及其形成机制。进一步地,基于2010—2023年我国非金融上市公司数据对理论模型中的主要推论进行实证检验。结果发现,货币政策收紧一方面会通过银行信贷收缩直接影响企业的负债端规模,另一方面会通过替代性融资机制和净利润机制影响企业的负债端和权益端规模,最终使货币政策调控与企业杠杆率呈U型非线性关系,且这一关系在短期杠杆率、非国有企业、金融市场化程度较高的地区和行业竞争程度较低的企业表现更明显。本研究有助于理解货币政策调控与企业杠杆率之间的关系,为推动我国金融体系的健康发展提供实证依据。The overarching tone of monetary policy plays a pivotal role in the levels and structure of corporate leverage.Precisely discerning the impact of monetary policy management on corporate leverage is essential for ensuring the monetary policy is flexible,moderate,precisely targeted and effective.This study corroborates the existence of a nonlinear linkage within the management of monetary policy and the leverage ratio of non-financial firms and delves into the mechanisms behind it.Specifically,this study first establishes a partial equilibrium model including both the banking sector and the informal financial sector,confirming the nonlinearity and its formation mechanism within the management of monetary policy and the leverage ratio of non-financial firms.Furthermore,this study empirically analyzes China's listed non-financial corporate data 2010—2023.It shows that monetary policy tightening could lower the liabilities of a firm by reducing bank financing.Simultaneously,it affects both the liabilities and equity of a firm through alternative financing mechanisms and net profit channels,leading to a U-shaped correlation between monetary policy regulation and the debt-to-asset ratio of firms.Moreover,this relationship is more evident in short-term leverage,non-state-owned firms,and firms located in provinces with higher financial marketization degree and in less competitive industries.This study contributes to the understanding of the correlation within monetary policy management and the leverage ratio of firms.It holds practical significance for supporting the healthy development of China's financial system.

关 键 词：货币政策 替代性融资 企业净利润 企业杠杆率 

分 类 号：F832.42[经济管理—金融学]