教育何以防范中等收入群体滑落?——基于中国家庭追踪调查的数据分析  

How Does Education Prevent the Decline of Middle-income Groups:Data Analysis Based on Chinese Family Panel Studies

作　　者：张茂聪[1] 黎敏辉 范晓婷[2] Zhang Maocong;Li Minhui;Fan Xiaoting(Research Center for Educational Policy and Management,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250014,China;School of Economics,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学教育政策与管理研究中心,济南250014 [2]山东师范大学经济学院,济南250014

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报(教育科学版)》2025年第5期57-75,共19页Journal of East China Normal University:Educational Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金哲学社会科学领军人才项目“‘双减’政策执行:利益诉求、评价体系与协商机制研究”(22VRC105);山东省高等学校青创科技支持计划创新团队项目“山东省高等教育赋能中等收入群体扩容的机制、效应及政策研究”(2023RW094)。

摘　　要：扩大中等收入群体是推进共同富裕的重要举措,而稳定中等收入群体,防范中等收入群体向下滑落是扩大中等收入群体的重中之重。本文基于中国家庭追踪调查数据,利用二值选择模型,实证检验教育何以防范中等收入群体滑落。研究表明,教育能够有效防范中等收入群体向下滑落。机制分析发现,教育可通过提高家庭就业稳定性、提升风险防范意识来防止滑落。异质性分析发现,教育防范中等偏下收入群体滑落的效用大于中等及中等偏上收入群体;接受高中及以上阶段教育能够更加有效地防范中等收入群体滑落;城乡之间则不具有明显差异。进一步分析结果表明,在线教育对于防范中等收入群体滑落具有显著调节效应,特别是对于预测滑落概率为40%~70%的中等收入群体作用显著;非学历教育则不具有调节效应。为此,要坚持优先发展教育事业以进一步提高社会人力资本水平;持续扩大高中优质资源并加快推进高等教育高质量发展;积极推进智能时代AI大语言模型赋能在线教育变革创新;不断完善社会福利保障体系为“稳中”提供制度性兜底。Expanding the middle-income group is an important measure to promote common prosperity.Stabil-izing the middle-income group and preventing it from sliding downwards is the top priority for expanding the middle-income group.Based on the China Family Panel Studies data and using a binary choice model,drawing on the vulnerability measurement method of expected poverty,this study estimates the probability of middle-income group decline and empirically tests whether education can prevent middle-income group decline.Research has shown that education can effectively prevent the decline of middle-income groups.Mechanism analysis reveals that educa-tion can prevent slippage by improving household employment stability and enhancing risk prevention awareness.Heterogeneity analysis found that within the middle-income group,the effectiveness of education in preventing the decline of the lower middle-income group is greater than that of the middle and upper middle-income groups;In terms of educational hierarchy differences,higher education plays an important role in preventing the decline of middle-income groups.In terms of urban-rural differences,the effectiveness of education in rural areas in preventing the decline of middle-income groups is greater than that in urban areas.Further analysis shows that online education has a significant moderating effect on preventing the decline of middle-income groups,especially for middle-income groups with a predicted decline probability of 40%-70%.Non-degree education does not have a moderating effect.To this end,we must prioritize the development of education and improve the overall level of human capital in soci-ety.Also,it's important to accelerate the high-quality development of higher education and increase resource invest-ment,actively promote the AI large language model in the intelligent era to empower online education reform and in-novation,and continuously improve the social security system to provide institutional guarantees for stability.

关 键 词：教育 中等收入群体 滑落风险 防范 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]