自然灾害应急物流能力关键影响因素及其结构识别  

Identification of key influencing factors and their structure of natural disaster emergency logistics capacity

作　　者：周江萍 黄国平 ZHOU Jiangping;HUANG Guoping(School of Economics and Management,Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou 412007,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南工业大学经济与管理学院,湖南株洲412007

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2025年第2期1-12,共12页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：湖南省包装经济基地项目(2022BZJG05)。

摘　　要：在自然灾害频发的背景下,识别并分析影响应急物流能力的关键因素,探讨这些因素之间的相互关系、层级结构和作用机制,可以有针对性地提高自然灾害应急物流能力。采用文献研究法和spyder软件进行数据分析,获取自然灾害应急物流能力的初始影响因素,筛选出17个主要影响因素,进而确定发展环境、救援效率和管理能力3个维度。通过决策实验室-对抗解释结构模型-交叉影响矩阵相乘法(decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory-adversarial interpretive structure modeling method-cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification,DEMATEL-AISM-MICMAC),明确这些因素之间的复杂关系,揭示它们在应急物流能力提升中的作用和层级结构。DEMATEL分析表明,应急响应时间、物流网络优化、多方式联合运输以及统筹与指挥能力等4个因素的中心度、原因度最高,处于核心地位;AISM分析表明,应急物资供给、物资配送速度和救援队伍到达时间属于根源层因素,具有根本性作用;MICMAC分析表明,政策保障、物流网络优化、信息反馈速度、多方式联合运输、统筹和指挥能力和应急处置能力是具有高驱动力、低依赖度的独立因素,对其他因素有较大影响,是需要重点关注的因素。研究结果有助于在自然灾害发生时,实现更快速、更有效的物资调配和救援行动。In the context of frequent natural disasters,identifying and analyzing the key factors affecting emergency logistics capabilities,exploring the interrelationships,hierarchical structures and action mechanisms between these factors can improve natural disaster emergency logistics capabilities in a targeted manner.This paper uses literature research methods and spyder software for data analysis to obtain the initial influencing factors of natural disaster emergency logistics capabilities,screens out 17 major influencing factors,and then determines the three dimensions of development environment,rescue efficiency and management capabilities.Through the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory-adversarial interpretive structure modeling method-cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification(DEMATEL-AISM-MICMAC),the complex relationship between these factors is clarified,and their role and hierarchical structure in improving emergency logistics capabilities are revealed.DEMATEL analysis shows that the four factors of emergency response time,logistics network optimization,multimodal transport,and coordination and command capabilities have the highest centrality and cause degree,and are in a core position.AISM analysis shows that emergency material supply,material distribution speed and rescue team arrival time are root layer factors and play a fundamental role.MICMAC analysis shows that policy support,logistics network optimization,information feedback speed,multimodal transport,overall planning and command capabilities,and emergency response capabilities are independent factors with high driving force and low dependence,which have a great impact on other factors and are factors that need to be focused on.The research results will help to achieve faster and more effective material deployment and rescue operations when natural disasters occur.

关 键 词：自然灾害 应急物流 因素识别 决策实验室分析(DEMATEL) 对抗解释结构模型(AISM) 交叉影响矩阵相乘法(MICMAC) 

分 类 号：D632.5[政治法律—政治学] X43[政治法律—中外政治制度]