不同暴雨频率下泥石流动力特征及影响范围对比分析  

Comparative analysis of dynamic characteristics and influence range of debris flow under different rainstorm frequencies

作　　者：唐颍 何朝阳[1] 罗尧晟 巨淑君 高志良 解明礼 TANG Ying;HE Chaoyang;LUO Yaosheng;JU Shujun;GAO Zhiliang;XIE Mingli(State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China;Suzhou Research Institute,Harbin Institute of Technology,Suzhou 215104,China;Guoneng Dadu River Hydropower Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610069,China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护全国重点实验室,四川成都610059 [2]哈工大苏州研究院,江苏苏州215104 [3]国能大渡河流域水电开发有限公司,四川成都610069

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2025年第2期23-36,共14页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：四川省科技计划项目(2024YFFK0108);四川省自然资源厅科研项目(KJ-2024-034);地质灾害防治与地质环境保护全国重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLGP2024K030)。

摘　　要：为研究气候变迁导致的极端降雨情况对泥石流风险的影响,对比分析不同暴雨频率下泥石流危险区划分。文中以四川乐山市金口河区张村沟泥石流为例,在收集历史灾情数据与现场调查基础上,分析张村沟泥石流工程地质特征,结合无人机测绘建立泥石流区三维地质模型,运用ANSYS CFX对张村沟泥石流历史灾情反演与不同暴雨频率条件下预测对比。研究表明:张村沟沟道狭长、物源丰富、纵坡降大,沟口小型排导渠无法满足较大流量的泥石流顺利通过,导致泥石流向两侧居民区扩散。不同暴雨频率下的张村沟泥石流泛滥区随暴发频率变化,暴发频率越小,泥石流泛滥范围越大,范围主要向人工排导渠两侧以及转向外侧扩张,超过50 a一遇暴雨工况时,冲击堆积范围提升为26480.60~41625.64 m^(2)之间。张村沟泥石流的危险区随暴雨频率变化显著,研究成果可为张村沟泥石流监测预警及灾害防治提供参考。In order to study the impact of extreme rainfall caused by climate change on debris flow risk and compare and analyze the division of debris flow danger zones under different torrential rain frequencies,this paper takes the Zhangcungou debris flow in Jinkouhe District,Leshan City,Sichuan Province as an example.Based on the collection of historical disaster data and on-site investigation,the engineering geological characteristics of the Zhangcungou debris flow are analyzed,and a three-dimensional geological model of the debris flow area is established in combination with unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)mapping.ANSYS CFX is used to invert the historical disaster of the Zhangcungou debris flow and compare the prediction under different torrential rain frequencies.The study shows that the Zhangcungou channel is narrow and long,with rich material sources and large longitudinal slope.The small drainage channel at the mouth of the ditch cannot meet the smooth passage of large volume debris flows,causing the debris flow to spread to the residential areas on both sides.The flooding area of the Zhangcungou debris flow under different torrential rain frequencies changes with the frequency of the outbreak.The smaller the frequency of the outbreak,the larger the flooding range of the debris flow,and the range mainly expands to both sides of the artificial drainage channel and turns to the outside.When the torrential rain condition exceeds once in 50 a,the impact accumulation range increases to between 26480.60 and 41625.64 m^(2).The danger zone of Zhangcungou’s debris flow changes significantly with the frequency of heavy rain.The research results can provide a reference for monitoring,early warning and disaster prevention of Zhangcungou debris flow.

关 键 词：泥石流 数值模拟 泛滥区 多频率暴雨 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学] X43[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]