闽江流域复合极端气候事件的识别与时空格局特征  

Identification and spatiotemporal characteristics of compound extreme climateevents in the Minjiang River Basin

作　　者：孙雪 涂玉凤 孙劭 周翔 姜立智 郝晓博 江彩英 高路[1,8] SUN Xue;TU Yufeng;SUN Shao;ZHOU Xiang;JIANG Lizhi;HAO Xiaobo;JIANG Caiying;GAO Lu(School of Geographical Sciences,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,Fujian,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Fujian Provincial Disaster Reduction Center,Fuzhou 350001,Fujian,China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Fujian Province,Fuzhou 350001,Fujian,China;Fujian Provincial Investigation,Design&Research Institute of Water Conservancy&Hydropower Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350001,Fujian,China;Nanping Meteorological Bureau,Nanping 353000,Fujian,China;Wuyi Mountain National Climate Observatory,Wuyishan 354300,Fujian,China;Fujian Provincial Engineering Research Center for Land Disaster Monitoring and Assessment,Fuzhou 350007,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福建福州350007 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [3]福建省减灾中心,福建福州350001 [4]福建省灾害天气重点实验室,福建福州350001 [5]福建省水利水电勘测设计研究院有限公司,福建福州350001 [6]南平市气象局,福建南平353000 [7]武夷山国家气候观象台,福建武夷山354300 [8]福建省陆地害监测评估工程技术研究中心,福建福州350007

出　　处：《水利水电技术(中英文)》2025年第3期1-14,共14页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“东南沿海山地丘陵区暖季暴雨时空异质性及其致洪效应”(42271030);福建省科技厅杰青项目“全球升温1.5℃~3℃情景下福建复合极端气候事件的致灾风险预估”(2022J06018);福建省“雏鹰计划”青年拔尖人才计划。

摘　　要：【目的】随着全球变暖,复合极端气候事件对人类发展和生态环境等所造成的负面影响比单一极端气候事件更显著。【方法】基于闽江流域29个气象站点1980—2021年日平均气温和降水数据,采用百分位法(第90和10个百分位)识别复合极端气候事件,探讨闽江流域四类复合极端气候事件(暖干、暖湿、冷干和冷湿)的频数、趋势和强度的时空变化特征。【结果】结果表明:(1)闽江流域的复合极端事件以暖干为主,年均频次最高,达到76.15 d;冷干事件次之,年均频次为53.32 d。季节尺度上,暖干事件频次最高,均超过15 d;冷干事件在秋季和冬季最高,均超过15 d。暖湿和冷湿事件频次较低。(2)从空间上看,暖湿事件和暖干事件的频发区均位于建溪流域南部、富屯溪和沙溪流域东部,以及闽江中下游流域东部和北部;冷湿事件和冷干事件主要发生于建溪流域北部、富屯溪和沙溪流域西部,以及闽江中下游流域西南部。(3)暖干事件呈显著上升趋势,冷干事件呈显著下降趋势。就子流域而言,沙溪流域的暖干事件增强趋势最大,达到13.58 d/10 a;富屯溪流域的冷干事件减小趋势最显著(-7.49 d/10 a)。(4)从强度上看,暖湿事件虽然频次较低,但强度较强,以强等级和中等级为主,且中等级的天数多于强等级。暖干事件以强等级和中等级为主,且强等级的天数多于中等级。【结论】总体上看,闽江流域的复合极端事件以暖干为主,强度大且呈增多趋势。冷干事件主要发生在秋冬两季,趋势逐步减小。极端降水影响下,暖湿事件的强度较强,但频次较低。[Objective]With global warming,compound extreme climate events pose more significant adverse impacts on human development and ecological environments than single extreme climate events.[Methods]Based on daily average temperature and precipitation data from 29 meteorological stations in the Minjiang River Basin from 1980 to 2021,the percentile method(90th and 10th percentiles)was used to identify compound extreme climate events.The frequency,trend,and intensity of four types of compound extreme climate events(Warm-Dry,Warm-Wet,Cold-Dry,and Cold-Wet)in the Minjiang River Basin were analyzed.[Results]The result indicate that:1)Warm-Dry events dominate the compound extreme events in the Minjiang River Basin,with the highest annual average frequency of 76.15 days.Cold-Dry events follow,with an annual average frequency of 53.32 days.On a seasonal scale,Warm-Dry events have the highest frequency,each exceeding 15 days.Cold-Dry events are most frequent in autumn and winter,each also exceeding 15 days.The frequencies of Warm-Wet and Cold-Wet events are relatively low.2)Spatially,high-frequency areas of Warm-Wet and Warm-Dry events are located in the southern Jianxi Basin,eastern Futunxi and Shaxi Basins,and the eastern and northern middle-lower reaches of the Minjiang River Basin.Cold-Wet and Cold-Dry events mainly occur in the northern Jianxi Basin,western Futunxi and Shaxi Basins,and the southwestern middle-lower reaches of the Minjiang River Basin.3)Warm-Dry events show a significant increasing trend,while Cold-Dry events exhibit a significant decreasing trend.Among sub-basins,the Shaxi Basin shows the most significant increasing trend for Warm-Dry events,at 13.58 days per decade,while the Futunxi Basin shows the most significant decreasing trend for Cold-Dry events,at-7.49 days per decade.4)In terms of intensity,although Warm-Wet events have a lower frequency,they exhibit higher intensity,predominantly at strong and moderate levels,with more moderate-level days than strong-level days.Warm-Dry events also predominantly

关 键 词：极端气候 复合事件 频率 趋势 强度 闽江流域 气候变化 降水 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]