中国大中型规模以上工业企业科技创新景气指数研究  

Research on The Boom Index of Science and Technology Innovation in Large and Medium-sized Industrial Enterprises in China

作　　者：杨武[1] 任禹佳 Yang Wu;Ren Yujia(School of Economics and Management,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2025年第4期75-84,共10页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“我国专利密集型产业破解国外技术锁定的机理、路径与对策研究”(72074019)。

摘　　要：本文以熊彼特的创新周期为理论依据,运用合成指数法构造系统、动态的中国企业科技创新景气指数,并深入分析其波动特征。结果显示,在观测期间,中国企业科技创新景气指数呈现出显著的持续波动,且该波动在高度、深度、振幅等多个维度上均展现出清晰的周期性特征,这种周期性波动具有不规则性、非对称性的复杂特征;在中国企业科技创新分项指数中,各项指数均呈现出持续增长的态势,但经济产出指数的增长明显低于科研产出指数;谷峰分析与脉冲响应分析结果显示,先行指数领先一致指数4年左右,对一致指数具有一定的可预测性。Based on Schumpeter's innovation cycle theory,this paper constructs a systematic and dynamic prosperity index for scientific and technological innovation among Chinese enterprises using the synthetic index method,and conducts an in-depth analysis of its fluctuation characteristics.The results show that during the observation period,the prosperity index of scientific and technological innovation among Chinese enterprises exhibits significant and continuous fluctuations,with clear cyclical characteristics in terms of height,depth,and amplitude.These cyclical fluctuations demonstrate complex features of irregularity and asymmetry.Among the sub-indices of scientific and technological innovation in Chinese enterprises,all indices show a continuous upward trend;however,the growth of the economic output index is significantly lower than that of the scientific research output index.The results of trough-peak analysis and impulse response analysis reveal that the leading index precedes the coincident index by approximately four years,indicating a certain level of predictability for the coincident index.

关 键 词：企业科技创新 景气指数 周期性波动 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济]