智能化技术预测:发展趋势、困境与未来思考  

Intelligent Technology Forecast:Development Trend,Dilemma and Future Thinking

作　　者：胡月 玄兆辉[1] 袁立科[1] Hu Yue;Xuan Zhaohui;Yuan Like(Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术发展战略研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2025年第4期106-112,共7页Forum on Science and Technology in China

摘　　要：技术预测在国家制定战略规划、优化资源配置方面发挥着重要支撑作用,可以为防范应对重大科技风险提供重要保障。随着信息技术的深入发展和广泛应用,智能化技术预测成为新的发展方向。本文分析技术预测活动演变的新特征和发展趋势,总结智能化技术预测的典型案例,剖析智能化技术预测面临的瓶颈问题,并在此基础上提出相关建议。Technology forecast plays an important supporting role in formulating strategic planning and optimizing resource allocation,and can provide an important guarantee for preventing and coping with major scientific and technological risks.With the in-depth development and extensive application of information technology,intelligent technology forecast has become a new development direction.This paper summarizes typical cases of intelligent technology forecast,analyzes its bottleneck problems,and puts forward relevant suggestions on this basis.

关 键 词：智能化 技术预测 人工智能 方法体系 

分 类 号：G321[文化科学] G353.1