技术对外依赖对全要素生产率的影响研究——兼论技术差距的门槛效应  

Research on the Influence of Technological Dependence on Total Factor Productivity——The Threshold Effect of Technology Gap

作　　者：姜新华 刘志鹏 Jiang Xinhua;Liu Zhipeng(School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京100049 [2]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2025年第4期113-123,共11页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金“技术对外依赖的测度、效应及影响因素研究”(72104230)。

摘　　要：近年来,技术对外依赖成为影响中国经济和产业安全稳定发展的主要问题之一。为妥善处理技术对外依赖问题,聚焦技术依赖的影响机制,基于2003—2019年中国30个地区的面板数据,探讨技术对外依赖对全要素生产率的影响及空间溢出效应,并利用面板门槛模型分析技术差距的门槛效应,以期为相关决策提供理论依据。研究发现,引进型、进口型、外商投资型、对外投资型技术对外依赖以及创新投入的增加、公众受教育水平的提高、交通设施的发展和城镇化的推进对全要素生产率具有显著正向影响作用,技术对外依赖对本地区和其他地区全要素生产率均会产生影响。随着技术差距的缩小,技术对外依赖对全要素生产率的影响更显著。因此应将“引进来”和“走出去”更好地结合起来,加强地区间联动发展,加大研发、教育投入力度和基础设施建设,并统筹发展和安全,发挥技术对外依赖的积极作用。In recent years,technological dependence has become one of the major problems affecting the secure and stable development of China's economy and industry.To properly address the issue of technological dependence,this paper focuses on the influence mechanism of technological dependence.Based on the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 2003 to 2019,the study explores the influence of technological dependence on total factor productivity(TFP)and its spatial spillover effects,and analyzes the threshold effect of technological gap by using the panel threshold model,with the aim of providing theoretical insights for relevant policy decisions.It is found that technology-imported,imported,foreign-invested and outward-invested technological dependence,as well as the innovation investment,public education level,transportation facilities and the progress of urbanization have a significant positive impact on TFP.Technological dependence affects TFP in this region and other regions.As the technological gap narrows,the impact of technological dependence on TFP becomes more significant.Therefore,it would be beneficial to implement a more optimal combination of“bringing in”and“going out”,strengthen the development of inter-regional connectivity,increase investment in R&D,education,and infrastructure construction,and integrate development and security,so as to fully realize the positive effects of technological dependence.

关 键 词：技术对外依赖 全要素生产率 技术差距 空间溢出效应 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学]