能力为王还是流量至上:全球科技智库成果产出的信息影响因素模型研究  

Is Ability the King or Flow the First:A Study on the Factors Influencing the Output of Global Science and Technology Think Tanks

作　　者：张敏[1] 刘华玮 金琳雅 Zhang Min;Liu Huawei;Jin Linya(Centerfor studies of information resources,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;School of Information Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学信息资源研究中心,湖北武汉430072 [2]武汉大学信息管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2025年第4期176-188,共13页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：全国高校人文社科重点研究基地武汉大学信息资源研究中心“十四五”重点研究项目“面向科技企业海外投资的智能情报服务研究”(WHXZ2022-07),2022年度武汉大学国家保密学院自主科研项目“总体国家安全观下我国科技信息安全保密管理体系建设”。

摘　　要：科技智库是国家科技情报服务提供与科技能力提升的操盘手和风向标,系统梳理科技智库成果产出的影响因素对于中国科技智库的合理规划和科学发展具有积极意义。本文基于信息生态系统的理论框架,结合德尔菲法构建科技智库成果产出的影响因素模型,选用全球范围内58所科技智库为实证研究对象,采用定性比较分析方法确定科技智库成果产出的影响因素单变量必要性与条件组合路径,基于实证分析得到的组态结果梳理科技智库成果产出存在的主要问题,并提出对策建议。研究结果表明:①科技智库成果产出被多种条件变量综合作用、共同影响;②高成果产出科技智库可归纳为自主展示型与外部吸引型两种路径类型;③提升科技智库成果产出,要以“能力建设”为核心夯实内容效能根基,以“传播创新”为导向构建品牌影响。智库生存强调“能力为王”,智库发展注重“流量至上”。Science and technology think tank is the operator and vane of national science and technology information service provision and science and technology ability improvement.Systematically sorting out the factors affecting the output of science and technology think tank is of positive significance for the rational planning and scientific development of science and technology think tank in China.Based on the theoretical framework of information ecosystem and Delphi method,this paper constructs a system of influencing factors for the achievement output of science and technology think tanks.58 science and technology think tanks around the world are selected as empirical research objects,and QCA method is adopted to determine the univariate necessity and condition combination path of influencing factors for the achievement output of science and technology think tanks.Based on the configuration results obtained from the empirical analysis,the main problems existing in the output of science and technology think tanks in China are sorted out and countermeasures are proposed.The results show that:①The output of science and technology think tank is influenced by a variety of condition variables;②High-output science and technology think tanks can be summarized into two types of path types:independent display type and external attraction type;③To enhance the output of science and technology think tanks,it is necessary to consolidate the foundation of content effectiveness with“capacity building”as the core,and build brand influence with“communication and innovation”as the guidance.Think tank survival emphasizes“ability is king”,think tank development pays attention to“flow first”.

关 键 词：科技智库 成果产出 影响因素模型 信息生态 定性比较分析 

分 类 号：G322[文化科学] C932[经济管理—管理学]