基于肉类进口视角下的中国饲料粮进口替代研究  

Research on the Import Substitution of China's Feed Grain from the Perspective of Meat Import

作　　者：朱新鑫 王永清 Zhu Xinxin;Wang Yongqing(School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 832000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐832000

出　　处：《新疆农垦经济》2025年第4期1-12,43,共13页Xinjiang State Farms Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(项目编号:19XJY011)。

摘　　要：中国饲料粮对外依存度过高且进口来源集中,致使其供应易受国际政治动荡、贸易政策调整及全球性突发事件冲击。伴随居民肉类消费需求的持续增长将进一步引致饲料粮进口规模激增,饲料粮进口风险加剧。文章考察了近年来中国重要饲料粮和肉类的进口安全状况,并结合供需形势探讨了以肉类进口替代饲料粮进口的可行性及具体的替代效应。研究发现,中国饲料粮的安全保障水平低于肉类,预计未来10年,中国肉类需求增长空间约为490~1114万吨,如果扩大国内肉类生产,饲料粮进口需求及进口风险将进一步加大,并且加剧农业资源压力。如果增加肉类进口,既能降低中国饲料粮对外依存度,缓解饲料粮进口来源过于集中的问题,又能显著节约国内水土资源。基于当前饲料粮进口安全形势,通过肉类进口替代饲料粮进口,对保障肉类稳定供给以及提升粮食安全水平具有重要意义。China’s high dependence on foreign feed grains and concentrated import sources make its supply vulnerable to international political turmoil,trade policy adjustments,and global emergencies.With the continuous growth of residents’demand for meat consumption,it will further lead to a surge in the scale of feed grain imports,and the risk of feed grain imports will intensify.This article examines the import safety status of important feed grains and meat in China in recent years,and explores the feasibility and specific substitution effects of replacing feed grain imports with meat imports based on the supply and demand situation.Research has found that the safety level of feed grains in China is lower than that of meat.It is expected that the demand for meat in China will increase by about 4.90-11.14 million tons in the next 10 years.If domestic meat production is expanded,the demand and import risks of feed grains will further increase,and the pressure on agricultural resources will intensify.If meat imports are increased,it can not only reduce China's dependence on foreign feed grains,alleviate the problem of excessive concentration of feed grain import sources,but also significantly save domestic water and soil resources.Based on the current situation of feed grain import safety,replacing feed grain imports with meat imports is of great significance for ensuring stable meat supply and improving food security levels.

关 键 词：饲料粮安全 饲料粮进口替代 肉类消费 

分 类 号：F326.5[经济管理—产业经济] F326.3