中国虚拟产业集聚时空分异及预测研究  

Research on Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity of Virtual Industrial Agglomeration and Prediction in China

作　　者：蔡咏梅 冯亚杰 李新英[2] CAI Yongmei;FENG Yajie;LI Xinying(School of Information Management,Xinjiang University of Finance&Economics,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830012;School of Economics,Xinjiang University of Finance&Economics,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830012)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学信息管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012 [2]新疆财经大学经济学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《贵州商学院学报》2025年第1期1-13,共13页Journal of Guizhou University Of Commerce

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“‘东数西算’背景下算力对西部经济韧性的影响机制与效应研究”(23YJAZH007);新疆财经大学高层次人才引进项目“算力对区域经济韧性影响机制与效应研究”(2023XYB007);党的治疆方略理论与实践研究课题“阿勒泰地区口岸经济产业发展现状与对策研究”(2024ZJFLD06)。

摘　　要：虚拟产业集聚将“空间”这一概念由地理向虚拟拓展,产业间由此建立新的柔性契约与双赢协同模式。以我国2013—2022年30个省区市的数据为样本,使用熵值法、三维核密度、Dagum基尼系数、莫兰指数探究虚拟产业集聚时空分异现状,并通过Arima模型预测未来发展趋势。研究表明:首先,我国虚拟产业集聚水平整体上升,且四大地区之间存在差异,其中东部地区的虚拟产业集聚水平最高,并且出现极化现象;其余三大地区虽然各区域内差异增大,但不存在极化现象。其次,在四大地区中,西部地区内部的虚拟产业集聚差异最显著,随后依次是东部、东北和中部地区;进一步分析发现,东西部地区之间的虚拟产业集聚差异最大,地区间的差异是造成虚拟产业集聚差异的主要原因。此外,研究发现各样本地区虚拟产业集聚受到了周边省区市虚拟产业集聚程度的影响,且大部分呈现空间正相关性。最后,根据预测得出2023—2027年全国及四大地区虚拟产业集聚水平将持续提升的结论。本研究丰富了虚拟产业集聚的相关理论,对全国及各地区未来调整集聚发展模式具有一定的借鉴意义。Virtual industrial agglomeration expands the concept of"space"from geography to virtual,thus establishing a new flexible contract and win-win coordination mode among industries.Taking the data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government in China from 2013 to 2022 as samples,this paper uses entropy method,three-dimensional kernel density,Dagum Gini coefficient and Moran index to explore the current situation of spatial-temporal differentiation of virtual industry agglomeration,and predicts the future development trend through Arima model.The results show that:firstly,the level of virtual industry agglomeration in China has increased as a whole,and there are differences among the four major regions.The level of virtual industry agglomeration in the eastern region is the highest,and polarization phenomenon appears;Although the differences among the other three major regions have increased,there is no polarization phenomenon.Secondly,among the four major regions,the difference of virtual industry agglomeration within the western region is the most significant,followed by the eastern,northeast and central regions;Further analysis shows that the difference of virtual industry agglomeration between the eastern and western regions is the largest,and the difference between regions is the main reason for the difference of virtual industry agglomeration.In addition,the study found that the virtual industry agglomeration in each sample area was affected by the degree of virtual industry agglomeration in surrounding provinces,regions and cities,and most of them showed a positive spatial correlation.Finally,according to the prediction,it is concluded that the level of virtual industry agglomeration in China and the four major regions will continue to improve from 2023 to 2027.This study enriches the relevant theories of virtual industry agglomeration,and has certain reference significance for the future adjustment of agglomeration development mode in the whole country and various

关 键 词：虚拟产业集聚 时空分异 演进预测 中国四大地区 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]