区域水资源承载力综合评价若干问题探讨  

Discussion on several issues in the comprehensive evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity

作　　者：金菊良[1,2] 沈时兴[1,2] 周亮广 王梓宇 周戎星 吴成国[1,2] 崔毅[1,2] JIN Juliang;SHEN Shixing;ZHOU Liangguang;WANG Ziyu;ZHOU Rongxing;WU Chengguo;CUI Yi(School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;School of Environment and Energy Engineering,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所,安徽合肥230009 [3]安徽建筑大学环境与能源工程学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《江淮水利科技》2025年第1期10-17,26,共9页Jianghuai Water Resources Science and Technology

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085US03,2308085US06)。

摘　　要：区域水资源承载力综合评价是支撑区域水资源空间均衡、水利高质量发展和可持续发展的重要基础性工作,受区域水资源、经济社会和生态环境诸多因素影响,近40年来一直是水资源可持续利用理论和实践研究领域的前沿热点和难点。针对实际区域水资源承载力综合评价过程中尚存在水资源承载力评价概念和系统结构不清晰、评价方法中的一些误区、评价方法各环节之间逻辑关联性较弱等重要问题,研究指出区域水资源承载力综合评价系统就是区域水资源承载支撑力、压力、调控力相作用形成的系统,区域水资源承载力综合评价就是在承载调控力作用下对承载支撑力与承载压力之间的平衡程度进行评判,评价对象a、评价指标b和评价目标c相作用构成区域水资源承载力综合评价系统;探讨了区域水资源承载力评价论据关系a-b、评价论证关系b-c和评价结果关系a-c的构建问题。结果表明,区域水资源承载力综合评价过程具有评价目标实现过程的物理成因解析-指标体系确定-评价方法构建的复杂系统结构,体现了完整的亚里士多德三段论的逻辑推理过程,可应用PDCA戴明循环方法对区域水资源承载力综合评价方法不断改进,以不断提高区域水资源承载力综合评价结果的合理性和可靠性。The comprehensive evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity is an important foundational task that supports regional water resource spatial balance,high-quality water development,and sustainable development.Influenced by various factors such as regional water resources,economic and social conditions,and ecological environments,it has remained a forefront hotspot and challenge in the field of sustainable water resource utilization theory and practice research over the past 40 years.In response to the important issues in the comprehensive evaluation process of water resources carrying capacity in actual regions,such as unclear concepts and system structure of water resources carrying capacity evaluation,some misconceptions in evaluation methods,and weak logical correlation between various links of evaluation methods,the study pointed out that the system structure of comprehensive evaluation was formed by the interaction of regional water resources carrying capacity support,pressure,and regulation;The comprehensive evaluation was to assess the balance between the supporting capacity and carrying pressure of regional water resources under specific water resources carrying and regulating conditions.The evaluation object a,evaluation index b,and evaluation objective c interact to form the comprehensive evaluation system;and the con-struction process of evidence relationships a-b,evaluation argumentation relationships b-c,and evaluation result relationships a-c was explored.The resulted indicate that the comprehensive evaluation process had a complex system structure of physical cause analysis,indicator system determination,and evaluation method construction,which reflected the complete logical reasoning process of Aristotelian syllogism.The PDCA Deming cycle method could be applied to continuously improve the comprehensive evaluation method of regional water resources carrying capacity,in order to continuously enhance the rationality and reliability of the comprehensive evaluation results of regional wat

关 键 词：水资源承载力 综合评价方法误区 评价对象 评价指标 评价目标 亚里士多德三段论 PDCA戴明循环 

分 类 号：TU213.4[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]