人口老龄化如何影响商业银行风险承担?  

How does Aging Population Affect the Risk⁃Taking of Commercial Banks?

作　　者：刘方[1] 祁迹 LIU Fang;QI Ji

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学 [2]武汉科技大学

出　　处：《人口与社会》2025年第2期10-25,共16页Population and Society

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BGJ043)。

摘　　要：基于2011—2022年我国139家商业银行微观数据和城市层面的人口老龄化数据,构建双向固定效应模型,实证分析人口老龄化对商业银行风险承担的影响。结果显示:人口老龄化会增加商业银行风险承担,经稳健性检验后该结论仍然成立。进一步的机制分析发现:人口老龄化通过降低居民储蓄和商业银行表外业务收入触发商业银行加剧储蓄存款竞争和扩大理财产品发行规模,从而增加其风险承担。异质性分析表明:人口老龄化对未跨区域经营、非东部地区的商业银行风险承担具有更显著的影响。在国家推进积极应对人口老龄化相关体制机制建设的同时,商业银行应加快业务转型与产品结构调整,充分利用金融科技手段增强自身风险管理能力,以应对人口老龄化的冲击。Based on the micro⁃data of 139 commercial banks in Chian over the period from 2011 to 2022 and the aging population data at the city level,this paper constructs a two⁃way fixed effect model to empirically analyze the impact of aging population on the risk⁃taking of commercial banks.The results show that aging population will increase the risk⁃taking of commercial banks,and this finding remains valid even after robust⁃ness test.Further mechanism test reveals that aging population reduces household savings and off⁃balance sheet business income of commercial banks,which triggers commercial banks to intensify competition for saving deposits and increase issuance of wealth management products,thereby increasing their risk⁃taking.Heteroge⁃neity analysis indicates that aging population has a significant positive impact on the risk⁃taking of commercial banks that have not engaged in cross⁃regional operations and are in the non⁃eastern regions.Therefore,com⁃mercial banks should accelerate business transformation and adjust their product structure,fully utilize fintech to enhance risk management capabilities,and actively respond to the impact of aging population.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 商业银行 风险承担 风险管理 居民储蓄 金融科技 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F832.33