中国城市的精明收缩:概念、发展状况与优化路径  

Smart Shrinkage of Chinese Cities:Concept,Development Status and Optimization Path

作　　者：范兆媛 陈友华[2] FAN Zhaoyuan;CHEN Youhua

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学社会与人口学院 [2]南京大学社会学院

出　　处：《人口与社会》2025年第2期43-53,共11页Population and Society

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“收缩型城市的形成机制与优化路径研究”(23CRK002);国家社会科学基金重大项目“人口高质量发展视角下积极应对老龄化问题研究”(23&ZD186)。

摘　　要：随着我国人口发展进入负增长阶段,城市实现“精明收缩”已成为一项充满挑战的任务。从人口、经济、空间维度分析了中国273座地级市的发展情况,发现有180多座城市至少在人口、经济、空间某一个维度上出现了不同程度的收缩。中国城市实现精明收缩可能面临系列问题:城市增长目标与发展实际状况不符;城市实现活力再生缺乏资源支撑,难以基于自身资源实现振兴目标。基于国内外收缩型城市对比,分析德国、美国、日本等国家城市精明收缩的经验,提出中国城市精明收缩的路径:转变思想,由被动抗拒到主动接受与积极应对城市收缩;抛弃“增长至上”思维,探索收缩型城市的可持续发展道路;寻求支持,依靠政府财政转移支付,保证收缩型城市中心区域的基本公共服务。As the population enters a stage of negative growth,achieving“smart shrinkage”has become a significant challenge in China.This study analyzes the development of 273 prefecture⁃level cities in China from the dimensions of population,economy and space,and finds that more than 180 cities have experienced varying degrees of shrinkage in at least one of these dimensions.The cities in China may face a series of challenges in achieving smart shrinkage,which include a mismatch between urban growth targets and actual development conditions,a lack of resource support for revitalizing urban vitality,and shrinking cities cannot achieve revitalization goals based on their own resources.Based on a comparison of shrinking cities domestically and internationally,the experiences of countries such as Germany,the United States,and Japan in implementing smart shrinkage are analyzed,and a path for Chinas urban smart shrinkage is proposed:shifting the mindset from passive resistance to proactive acceptance and active response to urban shrinkage;·43·abandoning the“growth⁃first”mindset and explore sustainable development pathways for shrinking cities;seeking support through government fiscal transfer payments to ensure basic public services in the central areas of shrinking cities.

关 键 词：精明收缩 城市收缩 区域人口 人口增减分化 城市规划 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]