中国和印度钢铁业碳排放总量和强度与产业关联效应的比较研究  

A Comparative Study on the Carbon Emissions Quantities,Intensities,and the Industrial Correlation of the Steel Industry in China and India

作　　者：屈颖 胡静茹 王寿兵[1] QU Ying;HU Jingru;WANG Shoubing(Department of Environmental Science and Engineering,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学环境科学与工程系,上海200433

出　　处：《复旦学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期205-217,共13页Journal of Fudan University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFE0201400)。

摘　　要：钢铁业对全球经济发展具有不可替代的重要作用。中国和印度作为两个钢铁生产和消费大国,其钢铁业的碳减排问题特别值得关注。本文利用投入产出法核算了2016—2022年两国钢铁业的碳排放总量与强度、对其他行业的拉动作用及与上、下游的产业关联度,旨在为两国钢铁行业碳减排策略的制定提供科学依据。结果表明,2016—2022年,中国钢铁业的碳排放规模远高于印度,两国间接碳排放比例均大于70%。碳强度方面,2016—2021年中国吨钢碳排放量均低于印度,2022年比印度高。2016—2022年,中国各年单位增加值的碳排放量均高于印度。其变化趋势与吨钢直接碳排放量变化趋势基本一致;印度单位增加值碳排放量与同期吨钢碳排放有所下降的趋势不一致,其碳经济效益并未同步提升。两国碳排放受钢铁业拉动作用影响最大的行业都是制造业。中国钢铁业拉动能源供应业碳排放量远高于印度,是由两国钢铁业能源使用不同导致的。在产业关联方面,中国和印度的钢铁业均与自身关联性最紧密;在后向关联关系中,中国钢铁业与其他产业的后向关联程度趋于减小,表明随着中国对钢铁行业产能过剩的不断调整,钢铁业正向成熟状态发展。印度钢铁业与其他产业的后向关联程度则呈现出平缓波动的变化特点。在前向关联关系中,两国钢铁业均与建筑业前向关联紧密。未来应特别关注钢铁业自身和与其关联程度高的产业的碳排放特征。对中国而言,在满足高端钢铁市场需求和超低排放改造的同时,也要克服近几年全球能源危机,发达经济体货币紧缩、美元持续走强的影响。印度则需要在城市化进程中继续关注钢铁业的变化及其产业关联碳排放的特征,尤其是建筑业和基础设施建设领域的碳减排。The steel industry plays an irreplaceable and important role in the development of the global economy.China and India,two major steel producers and consumers,are particularly concerned about reducing carbon emissions in their steel industries.This paper uses the input-output method to calculate the total carbon emissions and intensity of the steel industry in the two countries from 2016—2022,the driving effect on other industries,and the correlation with the upstream and downstream industries,aiming to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of carbon emission reduction strategies in the steel industry of the two countries.The results show that in 2016—2022,the carbon emission scale of China's steel industry is much higher than that of India,and the proportion of indirect carbon emissions in both countries is greater than 70%.In terms of carbon intensity,China's carbon emissions per ton of steel in 2016—2021 were lower than those in India,and higher than those in India in 2022.In 2016—2022,China's carbon emissions per unit of added value were higher than those of India in each year.The trend is basically consistent with the trend of direct carbon emissions per ton of steel,while the carbon emissions per unit of added value in India are inconsistent with the downward trend of carbon emissions per ton of steel in the same period,and its carbon economic benefits have not increased simultaneously.The industries that are most affected by the steel industry's pull on carbon emissions in both countries are manufacturing.China's steel industry drives much higher carbon emissions from the energy supply industry than India,which is caused by the difference in energy use in the steel industries of the two countries.In terms of industrial linkage,the steel industry in China and India is the most closely related to itself,and in the backward linkage,the backward correlation between China's steel industry and other industries tends to decrease,indicating that with China's continuous adjustment of overcapacity in

关 键 词：钢铁业 碳排放 中国 印度 产业关联 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]