土地利用和气候变化对热带岛屿汛期径流的影响  

Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on Flood SeasonRunoff in Tropical Islands

作　　者：熊伟[1] 叶长青 薛世玉 朱丽蓉[3] 李俊[1] XIONG Wei;YE Chang-qing;XUE Shi-yu;ZHU Li-rong;LI Jun(College of Ecology and Environment,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China;Hainan Provincial Key Laboratory of Environmental Processes and Ecological Regulation in Agriculture and Forestry,Haikou 570228,China;College of Tourism,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China)

机构地区：[1]海南大学生态与环境学院,海口570228 [2]海南省农林环境过程与生态调控重点实验室,海口570228 [3]海南大学旅游学院,海口570228

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2025年第4期45-51,60,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52069006);海南省自然科学基金项目(ZDYF2022SHFZ060,421QN201)。

摘　　要：为分析土地利用和气候变化对热带岛屿地区汛期径流的影响,选用海南热带河流南渡江流域中下游作为研究区,运用SWAT模型模拟不同情景下汛期径流的变化情况。结果显示:在土地利用变化情景下,把流域内的耕地转为天然林地,或者把人工林地转为天然林地,均会使汛期月均径流量和径流方差减小,而把人工林地转为耕地会使汛期月均径流量和径流方差增大,三者汛期产流能力为耕地>人工林地>天然林地;在气候变化情景下,流域内汛期月均径流量和径流方差与降雨量成正比,与温度成反比,其中龙塘站汛期月均径流量变化受气候变化的影响程度更大;根据综合型情景,与基准期相比,1990—2019年间由气候变化引起的汛期月均径流量和径流方差增大幅度显著大于由土地利用变化引起的减小幅度,且龙塘站对气候变化更敏感。研究成果可为土地利用和气候变化影响下热带岛屿汛期径流产汇流机制研究提供参考。To analyze the impacts of land use and climate change on flood season runoff in tropical island regions,we selected the middle and lower reaches of the Nandu River basin in Hainan,a tropical river area,as the study area.We employed the SWAT model to simulate flood season runoff changes under different scenarios.Results indicate that,under the land use change scenario,converting cropland or planted forest land to natural forest land in the watershed reduces both the average monthly runoff and its variance during the flood season.Conversely,converting planted forest land to cropland increases these two parameters.The runoff generation capacity of cropland is larger than that of planted forest land and natural forest land in descending order.Under the climate change scenario,the average monthly runoff and its variance during flood season in the basin are directly proportional to rainfall and inversely proportional to temperature.Particularly,the flood season average monthly runoff changes at Longtang Station are more susceptible to climate change.In the integrated scenario,compared with the base period,the increment of average monthly runoff and its variance due to climate change significantly outweighs the decrease caused by land use change.Longtang Station shows higher sensitivity to climate change.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 气候变化 SWAT模型 热带岛屿 汛期径流 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]