基于系统动力学模型的清水河流域水资源承载力研究  

Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Qingshui River BasinBased on System Dynamics Modeling

作　　者：武佳维 李金燕[1,2,3] 马占存 WU Jia-wei;LI Jin-yan;MA Zhan-cun(School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China;Engineering Technique Research Center for Water Saving Irrigation and Water Resources Regulation in Ningxia,Yinchuan 750021,China;Engineering Research Center of Ministry of Education for Efficient Utilization of Water Resources in Modern Agriculture in Arid Regions,Yinchuan 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学土木与水利工程学院,银川750021 [2]宁夏节水灌溉与水资源调控工程技术研究中心,银川750021 [3]旱区现代农业水资源高效利用教育部工程研究中心,银川750021

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2025年第4期71-79,86,共10页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：宁夏自然科学基金项目(2021AAC03018);宁夏大学水利工程一流学科资助项目(NXYLXK2021A03)。

摘　　要：以宁夏境内黄河最大的一级支流清水河流域为研究区域,综合考虑清水河流域水资源子系统、社会经济子系统及水环境子系统共同发展,运用系统动力学方法,利用Vensim软件建立清水河流域系统动力学模型,并设定5种不同的情景方案,基于2006—2020年历史数据,并利用熵权-TOPSIS法进行综合评价,预测了2021—2030年5种方案下水资源承载力的动态变化,从而找到提高该流域水资源承载力的最佳方案。结果表明:在现状延续型方案下,清水河流域水资源承载力较差,经济优先型、农业优先型及环境优先型方案只能对社会经济、水资源供需压力及水环境做出局部改善,而综合协调型方案能够全面提高水资源承载力评价指标,符合推进流域可持续发展的要求,该研究可以为清水河流域水资源管理与规划提供参考依据。This study selects the Qingshui River Basin,the largest first-order tributary of the Yellow River in Ningxia,as the research area.It comprehensively considers the co-development of water resources,socio-economic,and water environment subsystems in this basin.By applying the system dynamics method,we established a system dynamics model of the Qingshui River Basin using Vensim software and set up five different scenarios.Based on historical data from 2006 to 2020,we employed the entropy weighting-TOPSIS method to predict the dynamic changes in water resources carrying capacity under these five scenarios from 2021 to 2030 so as to identify the optimal solution for enhancing the basin’s water resources carrying capacity.Results indicate that the water resources carrying capacity of the Qingshui River Basin remains inferior under the status-quo continuation scenario.The economic-priority,agricultural-priority,and environmental-priority scenarios can only partially alleviate the pressures on socio-economic development,water resources supply and demand,and the water environment.In contrast,the comprehensive and coordinated scenario can comprehensively improve the evaluation indicators of water resources carrying capacity,meeting the requirements for promoting the basin’s sustainable development.This study offers a reference for water resources management and planning in the Qingshui River Basin.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 水资源预测 系统动力学 熵权-TOPSIS法 清水河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]