喀拉海海冰面积跃迁现象及成因探究  

THE REGIME SHIFT OF SEA ICE AREA IN KARA SEA AND THE CAUSES

作　　者：王康辉 聂红涛 罗晓凡 WANG Kang-Hui;NIE Hong-Tao;LUO Xiao-Fan(Tianjin Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Research and Service,School of Marine Science and Technology,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学海洋科学与技术学院、天津市海洋环境与安全保障重点实验室,天津300072

出　　处：《海洋与湖沼》2025年第2期304-314,共11页Oceanologia Et Limnologia Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题,2023YFC3107702号,2023YFC2809105号。

摘　　要：认识海冰变化规律是极地边缘海生态环境变化研究和经济活动规划的重要基础。基于1979~2020年海冰密集度卫星遥感数据、ERA-5大气再分析数据以及NAPA1/4海洋-海冰耦合模型的模拟结果,揭示了喀拉海海冰面积跃迁现象及其机制。研究结果显示,喀拉海海冰在2005年面积开始突然减少,其中前秋前冬和夏季海冰减少明显。热力作用主导了这两个季节前后阶段的海冰面积下降,其贡献占比分别为89%和91%。水体热含量估算结果显示,喀拉海夏季水体热含量先于前秋前冬出现异常。侧向热通量的增长主要出现在前秋前冬,而海表净热通量的增长主要出现在夏季。2004年春季异常的动力输运引起喀拉海东部海冰密集度异常低值,导致了夏季海表净热通量异常增加,是喀拉海海冰面积突然减少的诱因,而前秋前冬侧向热通量以及夏季海表净热通量的稳定增长是喀拉海海冰面积突然减少后维持在低值的主要原因。Recognizing the patterns of sea ice variation is crucial for studying ecological changes in the polar marginal seas and for planning economic activities.Based on satellite remote sensing data of sea ice concentration from 1979 to 2020,the ERA-5 atmospheric reanalysis data,and retrospective simulation results of the NAPA1/4 ocean-sea ice coupled model from 1994 to 2019,the regime shift in sea ice area in the Kara Sea and the causes was analyzed.Results show that the Kara Sea experienced a decreasing regime in ice extent in 2005,and the most significant changes occurred in the preceding autumn-winter,and summer,during which thermal effects played the major role,contributing 89%and 91%in the two seasons,respectively.Estimates of heat content in the water column indicate that anomalies in heat content appeared in the summer before those in the preceding autumn-winter.The increase in lateral heat flux was observed in mainly the preceding autumn-winter,while the increase in net heat flux at the sea surface was seen in summer mostly.The anomalously low sea ice concentration in the eastern Kara Sea in the spring of 2004,which was caused by abnormal dynamic transport,led to an anomalous increase in net heat flux at the sea surface in summer,triggering the abrupt decline in sea ice concentration in the Kara Sea.The sustained increase in lateral heat flux in the preceding autumn-winter and the stable increase in net heat flux at the sea surface in summer were the main factors contributing to the persistence of the low sea ice concentration after the regime shift.

关 键 词：海冰面积 跃迁现象 热力作用 喀拉海 

分 类 号：P731.15[天文地球—海洋科学]