城乡居民养老保险、人口年龄结构对消费水平的影响  

Influence of Urban and Rural Residents’ Endowment Insurance and Population Age Structureon Consumption Level

作　　者：祁玉良 肖文玲 李众宜 QI Yu-liang;XIAO Wen-ling;LI Zhong-yi(School of economics,Shandong women’s University,Jinan 250300,China)

机构地区：[1]山东女子学院经济学院,山东济南250300

出　　处：《聊城大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期48-57,共10页Journal of Liaocheng University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：济南市哲学社会科学规划研究项目(JNSK2025C094):低生育率背景下育龄妇女生育率提升策略研究;国家社会科学基金青年项目(19CSH073):农村失能老人家庭照料的社会支持研究。

摘　　要：城乡居民养老保险具有收益平滑和平衡福利水平的作用,会影响民众的消费水平,同时我国人口年龄结构正发生改变,这促使居民消费发生改变。采用2012—2022年省际面板数据,基于戴蒙德模型,采用GMM方法分析城乡居民养老保险水平、人口年龄结构变化对居民消费水平的影响。研究得出:老龄人口抚养系数对居民消费水平具有负向影响;养老保险参保缴费率和覆盖率对居民消费水平具有正向影响;少年儿童抚养系数对消费水平的影响不明显;城乡居民养老保险制度执行时间与消费之间的关系不显著。因此,建议尽快完善养老保险基金全国统筹,建立养老保险基金云审计系统;稳步有序落实退休延迟政策;不断完善第三支柱的商业保险,健全可持续的多层次社会保障体系,建设老年友好型社会,鼓励企业积极参与养老产业发展,创造更多的就业机会,促进消费增长。Endowment insurance for urban and rural residents has the function of smoothing income and balancing welfare level,which will affect the consumption level of the people.At the same time,the age structure of China’s population is changing,which promotes the change of residents’consumption.Using provincial panel data from 2012 to 2022,based on the Diamond model,the GMM method is used to analyze the impact of changes in urban and rural residents’pension insurance levels and population age structure on residents’consumption levels.Research has shown that the elderly dependency coefficient has a negative impact on residents’consumption levels;The contribution rate and coverage rate of pension insurance have a positive impact on residents’consumption level;The impact of the child rearing coefficient on consumption level is not significant;The relationship between the implementation time of the urban and rural residents’pension insurance system and consumption is not significant.Therefore,it is recommended to improve the national pooling of pension insurance funds as soon as possible and establish a cloud audit system for pension insurance funds;Steadily and orderly implement the retirement delay policy;Continuously improve the commercial insurance of the third pillar and establish a sustainable multi-level social security system.Building an elderly friendly society.Encourage enterprises to actively participate in the development of the elderly care industry,create more employment opportunities,and promote consumption growth.

关 键 词：人口年龄结构 城乡居民养老保险 保险基金 消费水平 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险] F126.1