基于能耗驱动因素挖掘的大学校园碳排放强度预测框架构建  

Construction of Prediction Framework on University Campus Carbon Emission Intensity Based on Mining Driving Factors of Energy Consumption

作　　者：刘沣颍 钟明特 朱笔峰 LIU Fengying;ZHONG Mingte;ZHU Bifeng(Zhejiang Shuren University,Shaoxing 312030,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江树人学院,浙江绍兴312030

出　　处：《绿色建筑》2025年第2期8-14,共7页Green Building

基　　金：浙江省高校重大人文社科攻关计划项目青年重点项目(2023QN108)。

摘　　要：绿色校园建设有助于实现全球可持续发展目标,是生态发展观的具体实践,校园建筑的碳排放计量与未来发展更是直接关系校园“碳达峰”的建设路径。目前相关研究大多聚焦大学校园的能耗计量,但针对校园碳排放的预测始终缺乏理论构架与工具。通过校园能耗驱动因素的挖掘,从碳排放源、能耗计量与预测情景3部分对大学校园的碳排放预测框架进行研究,旨在构建基于现有运营数据与政策导向的碳排放预测模型。研究发现大学校园的能耗驱动因素主要为经济、活动与能源,校园的碳排放来源为建筑、交通与活动。其能耗由终端用能设备可实现直接用能的计量。未来发展预测可通过设置基准、节能与目标3个情景来实现,并讨论政策引导下的运营效果。Green campus construction helps to achieve global sustainable development goals and is a concrete practice of the concept of eco-development,and the measurement of carbon emissions and future development of campus buildings are directly related to the construction path of campus"carbon peak".Currently,most of the related research focuses on the measurement of energy consumption of university campuses,but there is a lack of theoretical framework and tools for the prediction of campus carbon emissions.Through the excavation of campus energy consumption drivers,we investigate the carbon emission prediction framework of university campuses from three parts:carbon emission sources,energy consumption measurement and prediction scenarios,and aim to construct a carbon emission prediction model based on the existing operational data and policy orientation.It is found that the main drivers of energy consumption on university campuses are economy,activities and energy,and the sources of carbon emissions on campuses are buildings,transport and activities.Its energy consumption can be metered directly by end-use devices.The future development prediction can be achieved by setting up three scenarios,namely baseline,energy saving and target,and discussing the operational effects under policy guidance.

关 键 词：低碳校园 能耗计量 驱动因素 碳排放强度 情景预测 

分 类 号：TU18[建筑科学—建筑理论]