基于复杂网络理论的我国交通业碳强度空间关联特征分析  

Analysis on spatial correlation characteristics of transportation carbon intensity of China based on complex network theory

作　　者：谢庆 刘家保 XIE Qing;LIU Jiabao(School of Mathematics and Physics,Anhui Jianzhu University,Heifei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学数理学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《南通大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期28-39,共12页Journal of Nantong University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：安徽省高校自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2020A0478);安徽省重点教育教学研究项目(2022jyxm304)。

摘　　要：明确交通业碳强度的差异性和空间关联性,对于实现交通业节能减排和“双碳”目标具有重要意义。借助空间计量分析和复杂网络理论,对2009—2021年我国交通碳强度进行量化,采用基尼系数和核密度估计对时空特征进行分析,利用改进的引力模型和网络特性指标研究了交通业碳强度空间关联网络的结构演变。结果表明:1)我国交通业碳强度逐年降低,降速呈波动态势;2)各省份间交通业碳强度的不均匀程度逐渐降低,各地区内部的碳强度差异区别明显,华北地区之间的差异最大;3)碳强度空间关联关系表现为复杂的网络结构,网络的中心逐渐由天津变成上海;4)东部沿海地区靠近关联网络的中心,关联关系复杂,信息资源较多。研究结果可为相关部门提供一些参考借鉴,且可为评估各省份的减排强度和制订具有针对性的协同减排方案提供一定的理论参考。It is of great significance to understand the variations and spatial correlation of carbon intensity in transportation industry for achieving the goals of energy conservation,emission reduction and"dual carbon".With the help of spatial econometric analysis and complex network theory,this paper quantifies the transportation carbon intensity of provinces in China from 2009 to 2021,analyzes its spatial and temporal characteristics by gini coefficient and kernel density estimation,and studies the structural evolution of spatial correlation networks for every provinces′transportation carbon intensity by using improved gravity model and network characteristic indices.The results show that:1)The carbon intensity of transportation in China is decreasing year by year,and the rate of decrease is fluctuating.2)The unevenness of carbon intensity in transportation among various provinces is gradually decreasing,while the differences in carbon intensity within each region are distinct,with the greatest disparities occurring among the provinces in North China.3)The spatial correlation of carbon intensity shows a complex network structure,and the center of the network gradually changes from Tianjin to Shanghai.4)The eastern coastal regions are close to the center of this network,featuring complex relationships and abundant information resources.The results of this study can provide some references for competent departments,offering theoretical guidance for assessing the emission reduction intensity of various provinces and cities and for formulating targeted collaborative emission reduction plans.

关 键 词：交通业碳强度 空间关联 空间计量分析 复杂网络理论 社会网络分析 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] X73[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]