全油气系统理论在全球天然气水合物资源评价中的应用  

Application of the whole petroleum system in the evaluation of the global natural gas hydrate resource

作　　者：庞雄奇[1,2] 贾承造[1,3] 徐帜 胡涛 鲍李银[1,2] 蒲庭玉 PANG Xiongqi;JIA Chengzao;XU Zhi;HU Tao;BAO Liyin;PU Tingyu(State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China;College of Geosciences,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China;China National Petroleum Corporation,Beijing 100007,China)

机构地区：[1]油气资源与工程全国重点实验室,中国石油大学(北京),北京102249 [2]中国石油大学(北京)地球科学学院,北京102249 [3]中国石油天然气集团有限公司,北京100007

出　　处：《石油勘探与开发》2025年第2期267-278,共12页Petroleum Exploration and Development

基　　金：中国科学院学部重大咨询项目“南海石油天然气综合开发发展战略”(2019-ZW11-Z-035);中国石油科学研究院技术开发项目“全油气系统理论与非常规油气成藏机理”(2021DJ0101)。

摘　　要：天然气水合物作为一种广受关注的清洁能源,因缺乏统一的资源评价方法,且存在资源评价关键参数难以获取的难题,导致全球资源评价结果差异巨大。基于全油气系统理论,通过油气动力场控藏分析,建立天然气水合物资源潜力与常规类油气资源的定量关系和天然气水合物资源评价模型,进而根据蒙特卡洛模拟反演全球天然气水合物原地资源量和可采资源量,并采用钻探结果体积类比法和前人评估结果变化特征趋势分析法进行检验。该评价模型考虑了天然气生物降解和热降解两种成因机制、常规天然气和天然气水合物地表体积转换系数、有利区分布面积和厚度的差异性等对天然气水合物资源潜力评价结果的影响。研究表明:全球天然气水合物原地资源量和可采资源量的众数值分别为99×10^(12),30×10^(12) m^(3),平均值分别为214×10^(12),68×10^(12) m^(3),均不到常规类油气资源总量的5%,一定程度上可以作为全球未来能源的补充。天然气水合物资源评价新模型开辟了评价方法和技术的新途径。经可靠性综合分析检验验证,该模型获得了较为可信的水合物资源量数据,为下一步天然气水合物的勘探开发提供了参数依据。Natural gas hydrate(NGH),as a widely recognized clean energy,has shown a significant resource potential.However,due to the lack of a unified evaluation methodology and the difficult determination of key parameters,the evaluation results of global NGH resource are greatly different.This paper establishes a quantitative relationship between NGH resource potential and conventional oil and gas resource and a NGH resource evaluation model based on the whole petroleum system(WPS)and through the analysis of dynamic field controlling hydrocarbon accumulation.The global NGH initially in place and recoverable resources are inverted through the Monte Carlo simulation,and verified by using the volume analogy method based on drilling results and the trend analysis method of previous evaluation results.The proposed evaluation model considers two genetic mechanisms of natural gas(biological degradation and thermal degradation),surface volume conversion factor difference between conventional natural gas and NGH,and the impacts of differences in favorable distribution area and thickness and in other aspects on the results of NGH resource evaluation.The study shows that the global NGH initially in place and recoverable resources are 99×10^(12) m^(3) and 30×10^(12) m^(3),with averages of 214×10^(12) m^(3) and 68×10^(12) m^(3),respectively,less than 5%of the total conventional oil and gas resources,and they can be used as a supplement for the future energy of the world.The proposed NGH resource evaluation model creates a new option of evaluation method and technology,and generates reliable data of NGH resource according to the reliability comprehensive analysis and test,providing a parameter basis for subsequent NGH exploration and development.

关 键 词：天然气水合物 全油气系统 非常规油气 油气资源评价 化石能源 自然能源 

分 类 号：TE122.3[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]