贸易政策不确定性与企业出口模式——基于产品与市场的双重视角  

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Export Modes of the Enterprises:From the Dual Perspectives of Product and Market

作　　者：陈欣 林桂军[1] CHEN Xin;LIN Guijun

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2025年第3期22-39,共18页International Economics and Trade Research

摘　　要：文章通过构建中国企业-产品-市场的出口高维数据集,逐步探究贸易政策不确定性对多产品企业在产品和市场出口模式的影响。研究发现,贸易政策不确定性的下降推动了企业更替出口产品,促使大量企业涌入出口市场。进一步地,产品技术属性越高,贸易政策不确定性的下降对广延边际的促进作用越弱;而新旧市场在经济、文化和地理方面的距离越近,贸易政策不确定性的下降对广延边际的促进作用越强。结合广延边际拓展的特点,企业将通过新旧产品的组合探索出有效的出口路径。文章从产品和市场的双重视角分析了多产品企业应对外部政策不确定性的出口动态,总结归纳出具有中国企业特色的出口模式,对中国企业在应对外部贸易风险时的出口决策具有重要参考价值。By constructing a high-dimensional export dataset at China's enterprises-product-market level,this paper explores the impact of trade policy uncertainty on export modes of multi-product enterprises in terms of product and market.The research shows that the decline in trade policy uncertainty drives the enterprises to update their export products,resulting in a large influx of the enterprises into export market.Furthermore,the higher the technical attribute of the product,the weaker the promotion effect of the decline in trade policy uncertainty on the extensive margin.The closer the distance between the old and new markets in terms of economy,culture and geography,the stronger the promotion effect of the decline in trade policy uncertainty on the extensive margin.Based on the characteristics of the expansion of the extensive margin,the enterprises will explore effective export paths through the combination of new and old products.This paper analyzes export dynamics of multi-product enterprises in response to external policy uncertainty from the dual perspectives of product and market,and summarizes and generalizes export modes with the characteristics of China's enterprises,providing important reference value for China's enterprises in making export decisions when dealing with external trade risks.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 多产品企业 出口动态 广延边际 出口模式 

分 类 号：F741[经济管理—国际贸易]