境外人员流入与中国出口产品质量升级——基于72/144小时过境免签政策的准自然实验  

The Inflow of Foreign Nationals and the Upgrading of China's Export Products Quality:Based on 72/144-Hour Visa-Free Transit Policy

作　　者：孙伟[1] 胡彤 戴桂林[3] SUN Wei;HU Tong;DAI Guilin

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学商学院 [2]青岛理工大学人文与外国语学院 [3]中国海洋大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2025年第3期40-57,共18页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才项目(NCET-07-0777);中国工程院工程科技发展战略重大咨询项目(2023-DFZD-24);山东省高校人文社会科学研究项目(2024ZSMS091)。

摘　　要：文章从需求侧研究72/144小时过境免签政策对我国出口产品质量的影响。理论上,72/144小时过境免签政策通过打破境外消费者对我国产品质量的认知壁垒,增强境外消费者对我国产品的需求偏好,降低我国出口面临的违约风险,进而促进我国出口产品质量升级。实证中,以72/144小时过境免签政策的实施构建准自然实验,发现该政策显著提高了我国出口产品质量,这一结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立,理论研究假说同样成立。72/144小时过境免签政策对我国一般贸易出口产品、高技术出口产品、向发达国家出口产品质量升级的促进作用更大,依托72/144小时过境免签政策的面对面信息传递能有效弥补互联网在信息传递上的不足,两者相互补充,共同促进了我国出口产品质量升级。This paper studies the impact of 72/144-hour visa-free transit policy on the quality of China's export products from the demand side.Theoretically,72/144-hour visa-free transit policy promotes the upgrading of China's export products quality through breaking down the cognitive barriers of foreign consumers to the quality of China's products,enhancing their demand preferences for China's products and reducing the default risks faced by China's exports.Based on the implementation of 72/144-hour visa-free transit policy,the empirical research constructs a quasi-natural experiment and the results show that this policy significantly improves the quality of China's export products.This conclusion still holds true after a series of robustness tests and the theoretical research hypotheses are also valid.72/144-hour visa-free transit policy has a stronger promotion effect on the upgrading of the quality of China's general trade export products,high-tech export products and products exported to the developed countries.The face-to-face information transmission based on 72/144-hour visa-free transit policy can effectively make up for the deficiency of the Internet in information transmission.The two complement each other and jointly promote the upgrading of China's export products quality.

关 键 词：72/144小时过境免签政策 出口产品质量 理论机制 准自然实验 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]