建筑能源服务需求对温度变化的响应研究综述  

Review on the response of building energy service demand to global warming

作　　者：周子乔 刘永哲 王鑫[1] 戴瀚程 ZHOU Ziqiao;LIU Yongzhe;WANG Xin;DAI Hancheng(College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京100871

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2025年第1期132-141,共10页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：科技部国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFC3709300);四川省天府永兴实验室有组织科研资助项目(2024KJGG18);科技部国家重点研发计划资助项目(YS2023YFF0800058);国家科技重大专项项目(2024ZD0802900)。

摘　　要：在气候变化的大背景下,居民为了维持自身健康与舒适,会对建筑能源服务需求做出改变,以应对全球温度的上升。尽管在温度变化与建筑能源服务需求领域已有不少研究,但针对相关研究的系统性综述依旧不足。重点聚焦综述温度变化对建筑能源服务需求的影响因素、影响机制及方法应用。研究发现,在影响因素及机制方面,气候变化对建筑能源服务需求的影响在区域气候方面呈现出多样性,社会经济方面体现出复杂性,这就要求建模时应充分考虑不同地区以及不同收入群体之间的差异。在研究方法方面,工程核算法与计量回归模型是最为常见的2种建模方式,二者各有其优势与不足。此外,建筑能源服务需求的增加极有可能恶化城市热岛效应,而城市热岛所导致的区域温度升高又会反过来影响建筑能源服务需求,从而引发适应不良的现象。进一步讨论了研究方法的延伸和研究区域范围的拓展,并展望了未来多角度评估气候变化对能源服务需求影响的可能性,旨在帮助政策制定者和公共事业主体充分规划未来投资、保障地区和国家的能源安全,以实现减缓和适应的双赢。In the context of climate change,residents modify their demand for building energy services to maintain their health and comfort in response to rising global temperatures.Although there has been considerable research on the relationship between temperature changes and the demand for building energy services,a systematic review of this area remains insufficient.This paper focuses on reviewing the factors,mechanisms,and methodologies affecting the demand for building energy services due to temperature changes.The study finds that,in terms of influencing factors and mechanisms,the impact of climate change on building energy service demand exhibits diversity in regional climates and complexity in socio-economic aspects,necessitating careful consideration of differences between various regions and income groups during modeling.Regarding research methods,engineering calculation methods and regression models are the two most common modeling approaches,each with its advantages and limitations.Moreover,the increase in building energy service demand is likely to exacerbate the urban heat island effect,while the regional temperature rise caused by urban heat islands can further impact the demand for building energy services,resulting in maladaptive phenomena.This paper further discusses the extension of research methodologies and the expansion of research areas,while also exploring the potential for multi-dimensional assessments of the impact of climate change on energy service demand in the future.The aim is to assist policymakers and public utility entities in adequately planning future investments to ensure regional and national energy security,attaining a mutually beneficial outcome for both mitigation and adaptation.

关 键 词：气候变化 建筑能源服务需求 温度变化响应 工程核算法 计量回归模型 城市热岛效应 

分 类 号：TU201.5[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]