绿电制氢合成氨煤电掺烧技术经济评价与未来展望  

Techno-economic evaluation and prospects of integrated green hydrogen,ammonia synthesis and coal co-firing technology

作　　者：倪睿延 张奇 焦婕 郝少杰 马震宇 NI Ruiyan;ZHANG Qi;JIAO Jie;HAO Shaojie;MA Zhenyu(Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China;School of Business Administration,China University of Petroleum(Beijing)at Karamay,Karamay 834000,China;Regional Research and Consulting Platform for Carbon Neutrality and Energy Economics,Karamay 834000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)中国能源战略研究院,北京102249 [2]中国石油大学(北京)克拉玛依校区工商管理学院,新疆克拉玛依834000 [3]碳中和与能源经济自治区咨询研究平台,新疆克拉玛依834000

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2025年第1期177-188,共12页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：国家社科基金资助项目(24VRC22);中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(ZYYD2025ZY13);天山研究院重点资助项目(TSKF20240001)。

摘　　要：加快新能源发展和煤电低碳化改造是构建清洁低碳安全高效的新型电力系统的关键方式,但中国新能源装机的快速增长也带来了电力消纳、系统稳定运行以及实现经济效益等方面的挑战。在此背景下,绿电制氢合成氨煤电掺烧是一种同时解决新能源消纳、促进煤电低碳化改造的重要技术路径。然而,受产业链过长、经济参数繁多与支持政策不确定等多维因素影响,一体化技术经济性尚不明晰。因此,在厘清绿电制氢合成氨煤电掺烧一体化技术工艺流程的基础上,针对典型项目进行技术经济评价,同时就绿氢成本、碳价等关键因素进行敏感性分析与未来发展展望。研究结果表明:①现有条件下,一体化项目整体亏损严重,项目绿氢生产成本为33.78元/kg,绿电成本(53.76%)与设备成本(30.38%)占比最大;②掺烧比例增加导致经济性下降,但碳价上升可以缓解这一问题,碳价超过2300元/t时,掺烧30%项目经济性优于掺烧10%项目;③绿氢成本是项目经济性的决定性因素,若碳价上升至750元/t,10%、20%、30%掺烧项目盈利所需绿氢临界成本分别为22.45、16.44、14.40元/kg。因此,尽管当前项目不具备经济性,但随着技术进步和碳价上升,成本收益有望大幅改善,从而推广落地。Accelerating the development of renewable energy and the low-carbon transformation of coal power is crucial for building a clean,low-carbon,safe,and efficient new power system.However,the rapid expansion of renewable energy installations in China has introduced challenges in terms of power consumption,system stability,and economic viability.In this context,co-firing green hydrogen-derived ammonia with coal presents a promising technological pathway to address both renewable energy utilization and coal power's low-carbon transformation.Nonetheless,the techno-economic feasibility of this integrated approach remains unclear due to the complexity of the industrial chain,the numerous economic parameters involved,and uncertainties in policy support.Therefore,this study clarifies the integrated technological process of green hydrogen production,ammonia synthesis,and coal co-firing.It conducts a techno-economic evaluation of typical projects,while performing sensitivity analyses on key factors such as green hydrogen costs and carbon pricing,and providing insights into their prospects.The findings indicate:①Under current conditions,the integrated project incurs significant losses,with green hydrogen production costs at 33.78 CNY/kg,primarily driven by green electricity costs(53.76%)and equipment costs(30.38%);②An increase in co-firing ratio results in a deterioration of economic viability,although higher carbon prices can alleviate this issue.When the carbon price exceeds 2300 CNY/ton,the economic performance of a 30%co-firing project surpasses that of a 10%co-firing project.③The cost of green hydrogen is a decisive factor in determining the project's economic feasibility.Should the carbon price rise to 750 CNY/ton,the green hydrogen costs required for profitability in 10%,20%,and 30%co-firing projects are22.45,16.44,and 14.40 CNY/kg respectively.Consequently,while the project is currently economically unviable,technological advancements and rising carbon prices are expected to substantially improve the cost-effecti

关 键 词：绿氢 绿氨 煤电掺氨 一体化技术 技术经济评价 经济界限 

分 类 号：F416.21[经济管理—产业经济]