CMA多模式对台风“梅花”在东北降水预报的检验分析  

Spatial verification of CMA models on precipitation forecast for typhoon"Meihua"in Northeast China

作　　者：姚凯 朱晓彤 陈长胜[2] 秦玉琳[2] 周东雪 朴美花 YAO Kai;ZHU Xiaotong;CHEN Changsheng;QIN Yulin;ZHOU Dongxue;PIAO Meihua(Institute of Atmospheric Environment,China Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110166,China;Jilin Provincial Observatory,Changchun 130062,China;Jilin Institute of Meteorological Science,Changchun 130062,China;Jilin Provincial key Laboratory of Changbai Mountain&Climate Change,Changchun 130062,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]吉林省气象台,吉林长春130062 [3]吉林省气象科学研究所,吉林长春130062 [4]长白山气象与气候变化吉林省重点实验室,吉林长春130062

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2025年第1期35-42,共8页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所和东北冷涡重点开放实验室联合开放基金(2023SYIAEKFMS07);吉林省科技发展计划项目(20220203186SF)共同资助。

摘　　要：以2022年9月影响东北地区的台风“梅花”残余系统降水为例,采用SAL(structure amplitude and location)空间检验方法对5种中国气象局数值业务模式(CMA模式)降水最强日(2022年9月16日08时至17日08时,热带低压)累计24 h降水预报进行空间检验、偏差成因及预报调整分析。结果表明:此次过程中各模式在降水位置方面预报均较好,CMA-GFS在降水结构分布、强度方面预报表现最佳,除CMA-BJ外其他模式对于降水极值预测均偏小。CMA-GFS预报效果最佳的原因是其对于台风变性、850 hPa低空急流及暖式切变线位置、强度以及移速预报更准确,CMA-TYM预报较差主要是未能预报出台风变性,对切变线预报速度过快而导致暴雨落区偏大。CMA-GFS随着预报时效的临近,预报效果越来越好,优势主要体现在临近时效内,但在长时效预报中几乎无预报能力,CMA-TYM虽然在临近时段结构与强度预报效果较差,但在长预报时效是最早指示出强降水大致落区与量级的模式。In this study,the SAL(structure amplitude and location)spatial verification method is used to evaluate the 12~36 hours total precipitation forecast performance of five China Meteorological Administration(CMA)models for the strongest precipitation day during the remnants of Typhoon"Meihua"over Northeast China in September of 2022(from 08:00 on September 16 to 08:00 on September 17,with the typhoon category as a tropical depression).The results can be summarized as follows:The CMA-GFS model exhibits the best forecast of precipitation structure,amplitude,and location in this case,while for the other models tend to underestimate extreme precipitation,except CMA-BJ.Due to its well-performance in predicting the location,intensity,and moving speed of the 850 hPa low-level jet,the CMA-GFS model has the best precipitation forecast.Meanwhile,the faster speed of the low-level jet predicted by the CMA-TYM model leads to a smaller area of significant rainfall exceeding 100 mm.The CMA-GFS model demonstrates better forecasting performance as the lead time shortens,with notable advantages in now-casting forecasts but limited skill for longer lead times.In contrast,although CMA-TYM model exhibits poorer structure and amplitude performance in approaching lead time,it is the earliest model to provide indicative signals for the general location and magnitude of heavy precipitation.The summary of CMA models forecast performance in typhoon remnant system precipitation aims to enhance the applicability of numerical weather models in China in similar scenarios of the future.

关 键 词：CMA模式 SAL空间检验 台风残余系统降水 偏差分析 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]