内蒙古兴安盟水稻育秧、移栽和收获适宜气象条件等级预报模型  

Grade forecast model for suitable meteorological conditions for rice seedling cultivation,transplantation,and harvesting in Higgan League of Inner Mongolia

作　　者：高红霞 张亚军 张超群 田淑华 GAO Hongxia;ZHANG Yajun;ZHANG Chaoqun;TIAN Shuhua(Hinggan League Meteorological Bureau,Ulanhot 137400,China;Tuquan County Meteorological Service,Tuquan 137500,China;Hinggan League Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Technology Promotion Center,Ulanhot 137400,China)

机构地区：[1]兴安盟气象局,内蒙古乌兰浩特137400 [2]突泉县气象局,内蒙古突泉137500 [3]兴安盟农牧技术推广中心,内蒙古乌兰浩特137400

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2025年第1期84-89,共6页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：内蒙古气象局引导性创新项目(nmqxydcx202208)资助。

摘　　要：气象条件适宜程度关系到农事活动的效率、成本等问题,兴安盟地区水稻生产过程中涉及的农事活动主要有育秧、移栽和收获。根据相关气象要素对水稻育秧、移栽和收获的影响,采用模糊隶属度方法建立了各农事活动中相关气象要素的适宜度计算函数,并通过专家咨询确定了各影响要素的权重,在此基础上,结合科尔沁右翼前旗2010—2022年水稻生长观测数据,构建了兴安盟水稻育秧、移栽和收获综合气象适宜度模型及等级指标。结果表明:2020—2022年水稻育秧、移栽和收获期间的综合气象适宜度均为适宜或较适宜,不同年份水稻育秧和移栽气象适宜度变化较大,收获气象适宜度变化较小。各模型和指标符合兴安盟水稻生产实际,结合气温、降水等要素的精细化预报,可开展相关农事活动适宜期预报。The suitability of meteorological conditions is related to the efficiency,cost and other issues of agricultural activities.In Hinggan League,the agricultural activities in rice production mainly include seedling cultivation,transplanting,and harvesting.Based on the influence of relevant meteorological factors on rice seedling cultivation,transplantation and harvest,a suitability calculation function for relevant meteorological elements was established using a fuzzy membership method.The weight of each influencing factor was determined through expert consultation.On this basis,utilizing rice growth observation data from 2010 to 2022 in Horqin Right Wing Front Banner,a comprehensive meteorological suitability model and classification index for rice seedling cultivation,transplantation,and harvesting in Hinggan League were developed.The results show that the comprehensive meteorological suitability for rice seedling cultivation,transplantation,and harvesting has been moderate or relatively moderate over the past three years.The meteorological suitability for rice seedling cultivation and transplantation varies greatly in different years,whereas the meteorological suitability for harvesting has changed relatively little.The models and classification indices align well with the actual rice production conditions in Hinggan League.When integrated with refined forecasts of temperature,precipitation,and other meteorological variables,these models can facilitate the prediction of optimal periods for agricultural activities.

关 键 词：水稻 农事适宜度 气象指标 权重系数 

分 类 号：S165.3[农业科学—农业气象学]