基于最优分割法的上海市暴雨和大风致灾阈值研究  

Study on the disaster threshold of rainstorm and gale in Shanghai based on optimal division method

作　　者：杨辰 王强 穆海振[1] 孙一 YANG Chen;WANG Qiang;MU Haizhen;SUN Yi(Shanghai Meteorological Service,Shanghai 200030,China;Shanghai Center for Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市气象局,上海200030 [2]上海市气象灾害防御技术中心,上海200030

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2025年第1期97-103,共7页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：上海市2020年度“科技创新行动计划”社会发展科技攻关定向项目(20DZ1200403)资助。

摘　　要：基于2012—2021年上海市气象灾情数据,对气象条件致灾规律进行分析并引入最优分割法,得到分区的暴雨和大风致灾阈值指标。结果表明:平均小时雨强30.7 mm·h^(-1)、6 h累积降水量64.5 mm和24 h累积降水量91.7 mm以上的降水会导致内涝积水,12.4 m·s^(-1)以上的风速会导致大风灾害。不同区域的致灾阈值存在较明显的差异,对于暴雨阈值,中心城区的1 h雨强阈值普遍高于郊区,但24 h累积降水量阈值明显低于郊区;对于大风阈值,中心城区的大风致灾阈值要明显小于郊区。构建的上海各区的致灾阈值指标,可为各区气象灾害防御和城市治理提供参考。Based on meteorological disaster data in Shanghai from 2012 to 2021,this study investigated the mechanisms by analyzing the disaster regularity of meteorological conditions trigger disasters and employs an optimal division method to derive district-specific threshold indicators for rainstorm and gale disasters.The results show that the average precipitation with an hourly rainfall intensity over 30.7 mm,6-hour cumulative rainfall over 64.5 mm and 24-hour cumulative rainfall over 91.7 mm are prone to induce waterlogging,and the average wind speed over 12.4 m·s^(-1) are associated with gale disasters.There are significant differences in the disaster threshold among different administrative regions.For the rainstorm,the hourly rainfall intensity threshold in downtown area is generally higher than that in suburban areas,but the 24-hour cumulative rainfall threshold is obviously lower than that in suburban areas.For strong wind,the threshold of disaster caused by strong wind in downtown area is significantly lower than that in suburban areas.This study provides a quantitative reference for meteorological disaster prevention and urban governance in each district of Shanghai by developing the disaster threshold.

关 键 词：致灾阈值 暴雨灾害 大风灾害 报警灾情 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]