“双碳”目标下中国降碳减污扩绿增长协同:效应测度、空间联系与区域差异  

Synergistic Growth of Pollution Reduction,Carbon Reduction,Green Expansion,and Economic Growth in China Under the‘Dual Carbon’Goal:Effect Measurement,Spatial Connection,and Regional Differences

作　　者：尹碧波 郑佳琦 孙泽萱 邝萍 欧阳昕彤 YIN Bibo;ZHENG Jiaqi;SUN Zexuan;KUANG Ping;OUYANG Xintong(School of Resources and Environment,Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205,China;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205,China;China Western Economic Research Institute,Southwest University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南工商大学资源环境学院,湖南长沙410205 [2]湖南工商大学数学与统计学院,湖南长沙410205 [3]西南财经大学中国西部经济研究院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2025年第4期713-723,共11页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：湖南省社科“学术湖南”精品培育项目(No.24ZDAJ005);湖南省研究生科研创新重点项目(No.CX20231123)。

摘　　要：协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长,是助力“双碳”目标实现和促进我国经济社会全面绿色转型的重要战略路径。目前对降碳减污扩绿增长协同效应尚未形成统一的评估体系,因此本文基于我国30个省份2011−2020年的面板数据(不包含西藏自治区及港澳台地区数据),运用耦合协调模型、XGBoost模型及复合系统协同度模型分别测度各省份降碳减污、扩绿增长及降碳减污扩绿增长协同效应,并分别利用修正的引力模型及Dagum基尼系数和泰尔指数来衡量协同效应的空间联系以及我国八大综合经济区之间的区域差异。结果表明:①我国降碳减污协同效应水平差异较大,扩绿增长协同效应水平整体偏低,二者存在协同发展特征。②2012−2020年我国降碳减污扩绿增长平均协同度为0.0356,整体而言协同水平较低且存在“木桶效应”,系统处于不稳定不协调状态。③在空间联系层面,不同省份间降碳减污扩绿增长协同效应的空间联系强度不断增大,且表现出显著的空间邻近性。④我国八大综合经济区降碳减污扩绿增长协同效应的区域差异较大,并且差异主要来自区域内部。其中,东部沿海、长江中游及黄河中游地区的区域差异呈逐步上升趋势,其余经济区呈下降趋势。研究显示,我国各省份的降碳减污扩绿增长协同效应水平仍有较大进步空间,不同省份之间的空间联系在其中发挥积极作用。因此,我国应深化区域交流合作,发挥不同地区的比较优势,协同推进降碳减污扩绿增长,实现经济高质量发展。Collaborative promotion of carbon reduction,pollution reduction,green expansion,and economic growth is a key strategic approach to achieve the‘dual carbon’goal and promote the comprehensive green transformation of China′s economy and society.Currently,there is no unified evaluation system for the synergistic effects of carbon reduction,pollution reduction,green expansion,and economic growth.This paper,based on panel data of 30 Chinese provinces(excluding the data of Xizang Autonomous Region,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2011 to 2020,uses the coupling coordination model,XGBoost model,and composite system synergy model to measure the synergistic effects of carbon reduction,pollution reduction,green expansion,and carbon reduction,pollution reduction,and green expansion in each province.The modified gravity model,Dagum Gini coefficient,and Theil index are employed to assess the spatial connectivity and regional differences of the synergistic effects across China′s eight comprehensive economic zones.The results show that:(1)There is a significant difference in the level of synergy between carbon reduction and pollution reduction in China,and the overall level of synergy between green expansion and economic growth is relatively low,indicating a synergistic development feature between the two.(2)The average synergy degree of China′s carbon reduction,pollution reduction,and green expansion growth from 2012 to 2020 was 0.0356.Overall,the synergy level is low,revealing a‘barrel effect’where the orderliness of each subsystem is constrained by its weakest link,indicating an unstable and uncoordinated state.(3)At the spatial connectivity level,the spatial connectivity intensity of the synergistic effects of carbon reduction,pollution reduction,green expansion and economic growth among different provinces continues to increase,and shows significant spatial proximity.(4)Regional differences in the synergistic effects of carbon reduction,pollution reduction,and green growth across China′s eight major comprehens

关 键 词：降碳减污扩绿增长 协同效应 复合系统协同度模型 空间联系 区域差异 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]