中国尾矿库碳汇潜力及经济效益评估  

Carbon Storage Potential and Economic Value Assessment of Tailings Ponds in China

作　　者：陈强[1] 凌郡鸿 邱顺添 CHEN Qiang;LING Junhong;Soon Thiam Khu(School of Environmental Science&Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学,天津300072

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2025年第4期746-753,共8页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(No.2023YFC3205700)。

摘　　要：探究不同植被配置情景下的尾矿库固碳能力对于中国尾矿库碳汇能力提升、复垦方式优化和生态环境管理决策具有重要意义。本文结合InVEST模型,提出自然恢复、低人为干预、中等人为干预和高人为干预4种植物配置情景,预测了2035年中国尾矿库(不包含港澳台地区的数据)不同情景下的碳汇潜力及其空间分布特征,计算了尾矿库生态修复的固碳经济价值,分析了不同情景下碳价格变化对碳汇潜力经济价值的敏感性。结果表明:①2035年中国尾矿库在自然恢复、低人为干预、中等人为干预和高人为干预情景下的碳汇潜力分别为1.45×10^(8)、1.79×10^(8)、2.38×10^(8)、2.65×10^(8)t,高人为干预是表现最优的一种情景,其碳汇潜力占矿业碳排放量的39.49%。②4种情景的空间分布特征相近,碳汇潜力高值区位于新疆维吾尔自治区、河北省、甘肃省和辽宁省,占我国尾矿库碳汇潜力的69.05%。③按照国内碳价计算4种情景固碳经济价值,分别为246.5×10^(8)、304.3×10^(8)、404.6×10^(8)、450.5×10^(8)元,最大约占矿业行业利润的3.75%。④尾矿库碳汇潜力经济价值对碳市场价格变化反应敏感,经济效益与成本的平衡点为63.75元/m2。因此,在未来尾矿库生态复垦中需要采取多层次的植物配置以提升尾矿库的固碳能力,政府部门应持续推进尾矿库复绿复垦,逐步提高碳价激励企业自主开展复垦工作。Exploring the carbon sequestration capacity of tailings ponds under different vegetation configuration scenarios is crucial for enhancing carbon sink capacity of tailings ponds in China,optimizing reclamation methods,and informing ecological environment management decisions.Using the InVEST model,four scenarios of vegetation configuration were proposed:natural recovery,low human intervention,medium human intervention and strong human intervention.The carbon sequestration potentials and spatial distribution characteristics of Chinese tailings ponds(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan regions data)under these scenarios were predicted.Additionally,the economic value of carbon sequestration in ecological restoration of tailings ponds was calculated,and the sensitivity of carbon price fluctuations on the economic value of carbon sequestration potentials was analyzed across the different scenarios.The study shows that:(1)The carbon sink potential of tailings ponds in China under the natural restoration,low anthropogenic intervention,medium human intervention and strong human intervention scenarios are 1.45×10^(8),1.79×10^(8),2.38×10^(8),2.65×10^(8)t,respectively in 2035.The strong human intervention scenario demonstrates the highest carbon sequestration potential,accounting for 39.49%of carbon emissions from the mining industry.(2)The spatial distribution characteristics of the four scenarios are similar,with high-value carbon sink areas located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Hebei Province,Gansu Province,and Liaoning Province,which together account for 69.05%of the national tailings pond carbon sink potential.(3)The economic value of carbon sequestration for the four scenarios,based on the domestic carbon price,was calculated as 246.5×10^(8),304.3×10^(8),404.6×10^(8)and 450.5×10^(8)RMB,respectively.The highest value represents approximately 3.75%of the mining industry's profits.(4)The economic value of carbon sequestration is highly sensitive to changes in the carbon market price,with the balance point b

关 键 词：尾矿库 InVEST模型 碳汇潜力 经济价值 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]