粤港澳大湾区臭氧时空变化特征及气象因素影响  

Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Ozone in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Impact of Meteorological Factors

作　　者：刘莹 刘硕 赵彦云[1] LIU Ying;LIU Shuo;ZHAO Yanyun(School of Statistics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2025年第4期798-807,共10页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(No.22JJD910002)。

摘　　要：为研究近年来粤港澳大湾区臭氧(O3)浓度时空变化特征及其气象因素影响,基于2015年3月1日−2024年2月29日O3监测数据和气象数据,运用多元回归方法和气象调整方法,在季节和年度尺度上探究粤港澳大湾区不同城市的O3浓度变化特征,构建气象因素与O3浓度的回归模型,对O3和NO2浓度进行气象调整,分析O3浓度剔除气象因素影响前后变化及生成敏感性。结果表明:①从时间尺度来看,粤港澳大湾区O3日最大8小时浓度(O3-8 h浓度)整体呈上升趋势。②从空间尺度来看,不同城市O3-8 h浓度呈现出异质性。③粤港澳大湾区O3浓度受相对湿度(相对重要性为43.4%)、气温(相对重要性为27.1%)和风速(相对重要性为14.3%)影响较大,气温、总太阳辐射度对其具有正向影响,气压、相对湿度、累计降水量、边界层高度和风速对其具有负向影响,风向在不同城市和季节影响不同。④气象调整后的O3浓度季90%分位数和年90%分位数降幅较大,表明极端污染情况与极端气象因素关系密切。⑤香港地区、广州、深圳、佛山、东莞、中山、江门的O3生成敏感性由VOCs控制型逐渐转变为混合敏感型或NOx控制型,珠海和肇庆更倾向于VOCs控制型,惠州更倾向于混合敏感型或NOx控制型。研究显示,粤港澳大湾区O3污染日益加重,且不同城市间存在异质性,需因地制宜制定政策,有效防控治理O3污染。To investigate the spatiotemporal variation of ozone(O3)concentrations in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA)in recent years and their meteorological influences,this study utilized O3 monitoring data and meteorological data from March 1st,2015 to February 29th,2024.Multiple regression and meteorological adjustment methods were applied to explore the seasonal and annual variation in O3 concentrations across different cities in the GBA.A regression model was established to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and O3 concentrations,and meteorological adjustments were made to O3 and NO2 concentrations.The changes in O3 concentration and its sensitivity before and after removing the influence of meteorological factors were analyzed.The results show that:(1)Temporally,the daily maximum 8-hour O3 concentration(O3-8 h)in the GBA exhibited an overall increasing trend.(2)Spatially,heterogeneity in the O3-8h concentration was observed among different cities.(3)O3 concentrations in the GBA were influenced by relative humidity(43.4%),temperature(27.1%),and wind speed(14.3%).Temperature and total solar radiation had positive impacts on O3 concentrations,while air pressure,relative humidity,cumulative precipitation,boundary layer height,and wind speed had negative impacts.Wind direction showed varying effects across cities and seasons.(4)The seasonal and annual 90th percentiles of O3 concentrations showed a significant decrease after meteorological adjustment,indicating a strong association between extreme pollution events and meteorological extremes.(5)The sensitivity of O3 formation in Hong Kong region,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Foshan,Dongguan,Zhongshan,and Jiangmen has gradually shifted from VOCs-limited to mixed-sensitivity or NOx-limited regime,while Zhuhai and Zhaoqing remained more VOCs-limited,and Huizhou tended toward a mixed-sensitivity or NOx-limited regime.This study reveals that O3 pollution in the GBA is becoming increasingly severe with distinct inter-city heterogeneity,emphasizing th

关 键 词：粤港澳大湾区 臭氧(O3) 多元线性回归 气象调整 O3生成敏感性 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]