央行数字货币国际实践评估与影响因素分析  

International Practice Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Central Bank Digital Currency

作　　者：陈梦根[1,2] 陈曦 CHEN Menggen;CHEN Xi(Beijing Normal University,Beijing,China;Guizhou Key Laboratory of Sovereign Blockchain,Guiyang,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学统计学院,100875 [2]贵州省主权区块链全省重点实验室

出　　处：《经济学动态》2025年第2期18-36,共19页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“数据要素促进共同富裕的理论机制与实践路径研究”(23&ZD082);贵州省主权区块链全省重点实验室(黔科合平台ZSYS[2024]003)。

摘　　要：本文梳理和探讨了央行数字货币(CBDC)的概念、发行动机及经济影响,在此基础上比较和评估不同国家CBDC的实践效果,构建CBDC指数并从实证角度分析不同国家CBDC项目进展的影响因素。结果表明,增强金融普惠性、替代非现金支付、改善跨境支付、规范非正规经济是所有国家发行CBDC的共同动机,而零售CBDC与非正规经济规模存在显著的正向相关性,批发CBDC则在数字技术水平较高的国家发展更好。对于发展中国家,非现金支付越多、非正规经济规模越大、人类发展指数越高,CBDC发展成熟度越高。发达国家则在跨境支付交易较少、经济发展水平较低的地区CBDC项目进展更快。国家地理区位的不同也会导致CBDC的影响因素有所差异,对于亚洲地区而言,非现金支付比例、非正规经济规模的增加会促进CBDC项目的发展;在欧美地区,跨境支付交易越少、非正规经济规模越大、人均GDP越低时,CBDC项目发展越成熟;在非洲地区,非正规经济规模越大,金融普惠性水平越低,则越有动机来发展CBDC项目。分时段结果显示,疫情之后,金融普惠性水平、非现金支付规模与监管质量同CBDC发展的相关性更强,经济发展水平较高和金融稳定性较好的国家能够更快地投入CBDC的研发中。从CBDC的三个设计属性来看,多层模式、DLT技术、基于代币型CBDC均较容易出现在金融体系不稳定的国家。借鉴国际经验,中国在推进数字人民币发行的过程中,应该在充分考察我国国情的基础上循序渐进,加强数字货币技术的改进和优化,深化在CBDC领域的国际合作。In recent years,the rapid development of global digital technology,the growth of cashless payments,and the rise of cryptocurrencies have not only challenged the monetary prerogatives of central banks but also posed a new threat to the stability and integrity of the financial system.The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 had a profound impact on the politics,economy,livelihoods,and even militaries of countries around the world.In this context,financial systems of various countries are actively embracing digitization and emerging cutting-edge technologies,accelerating the exploration of pilot and issuance of central bank digital currencies(CBDCs).This paper outlines and discusses the concept,issuance motivation,and economic impact of CBDCs,examines the practical progress of CBDC projects in various countries,and compares the design schemes of CBDCs in different countries.Furthermore,the paper constructs a CBDC index from three aspects:the project progress status of CBDC projects,the central bank's position on CBDC development,and public interest in CBDCs.Using data from 114 countries and regions worldwide from 2016 to 2022,this paper builds an empirical model to analyze the influencing factors of CBDC project progress in different countries.The results indicate that enhancing financial inclusion,replacing non-cash payments,improving cross-border payments,and regulating the informal economy are common motivations for the issuance of CBDCs across all countries,and there is a significant positive correlation between retail CBDC and the scale of the informal economy,while wholesale CBDC develops better in countries with higher levels of digital technology.For developing countries,more non-cash payments,larger size of the informal economy,and higher human development index mean more mature CBDC development.On the other hand,developed countries are more advanced in studying CBDC programs in areas with fewer crossborder transactions and lower economic development.Differences in geographical locations of countries c

关 键 词：央行数字货币 零售CBDC 批发CBDC DLT技术 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]