2025年我国对外贸易面临的形势分析及前景展望  

Analysis of the situation and prospects of China's foreign trade in 2025

作　　者：霍建国[1] Huo Jianguo

机构地区：[1]中国世界贸易组织研究会

出　　处：《全球化》2025年第2期5-9,134,共6页Globalization

摘　　要：本文从市场结构、产品结构、市场开拓等方面分析了2024年我国外部市场环境呈现的新特征。本文认为,2025年我国外部市场环境将呈现复杂多变的局面。一方面,贸易保护主义难以根本缓解,贸易摩擦面临新的矛盾;中美高科技产品贸易持续承压,我国高科技产品出口短期仍受困;劳动密集型产品出口困难加剧,南部市场增长潜力受限;产业链供应链调整转移态势下的跨国公司投资难以根本反转等因素,将使外部市场环境继续承压。另一方面,美欧经济或将进入弱复苏阶段,市场需求订单将略有增长;中美关系进入战略对峙阶段,双边关系将出现阶段性缓解;新能源产品出口仍面临机遇,出口结构升级将持续发力;随着高水平开放的推进,跨国公司在华投资将趋于稳定;国内营商环境持续优化、外资出口将止跌回稳等因素,将利好外部市场环境。基于上述分析,本文对2025年我国宏观政策层面稳外贸工作以及企业的应对措施,分别提出了建议。This paper analyzes the new characteristics of China's external market environment in 2024 from the aspects of market structure,product structure,and market development.This paper argues that China's external market environment will present a complex and volatile situation in 2025.On the one hand,trade protectionism is difficult to fundamentally alleviate,and trade frictions are facing new contradictions;the trade of high-tech products between China and the United States continues to be under pressure,and China's high-tech product exports are still trapped in the short term;the export difficulties of labor-intensive products have intensified,and the growth potential of the southern market has been limited;factors such as the difficulty of fundamental reversal of the investment of multinational companies under the adjustment and transfer of industrial and supply chains will continue to put pressure on the external market environment.On the other hand,the U.S.and European economies may enter a weak recovery stage,and market demand orders will increase slightly;China-US relations have entered a stage of strategic confrontation,and bilateral relations will be eased in stages;the export of new energy products is still facing opportunities,and the upgrading of export structure will continue to make efforts;with the advancement of high-level opening-up,the investment of multinational companies in China will tend to stabilize;factors such as the continuous optimization of the domestic business environment and the stabilization of foreign exports will be conducive to the external market environment.Based on the above analysis,this paper gives suggestions for stabilizing foreign trade at the macro policy level in China in 2025 and the countermeasures of enterprises.

关 键 词：对外贸易 外部市场环境 高科技产品 劳动密集型产品 营商环境 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]