世界经济温和增长复苏前景不确定性上升——2024年世界经济形势分析及2025年展望  

Uncertainty about the outlook for a modest recovery in the world economy has risen——Analysis of theworld economic situation in 2024 and outlook for 2025

作　　者：余秋梅 李婧婧 郝悦 朱祎 赵宇欣 Yu Qiumei;Li Jingjing;Hao Yue;Zhu Yi;Zhao Yuxin

机构地区：[1]国家统计局国际中心

出　　处：《全球化》2025年第2期33-43,134,135,共13页Globalization

摘　　要：2024年,在多重风险因素影响下,世界经济保持温和复苏态势,据国际货币基金组织数据,世界经济增速从2023年的3.3%小幅回落至3.2%。从主要领域看,随着全球通胀放缓,主要经济体货币政策转向宽松,全球生产活动小幅改善,服务贸易较为活跃支撑国际贸易恢复,但受总体市场需求仍较为疲软拖累,制造业生产及货物贸易持续低迷,国际大宗商品价格整体回落。从主要经济体看,美国经济仍具韧性,欧元区和日本经济温和改善,主要新兴经济体经济延续复苏态势。展望2025年,宽松货币政策的延续将继续为全球经济复苏提供有利环境,中美仍将是拉动世界经济增长的重要力量,但在地缘冲突、贸易保护主义、债务压力以及美国经济和货币政策摆动等风险继续扰动下,世界经济复苏前景仍不容乐观。In 2024,under the influence of multiple risk factors,the world economy will maintain a moderate recovery momentum,and according to the International Monetary Fund,the world economic growth rate will fall slightly to 3.2% from 3.3% in 2023.From the perspective of major areas,with the slowdown of global inflation,the monetary policy of major economies turned loose,global production activities improved slightly,and trade in services was more active to support the recovery of international trade,but the overall market demand was still relatively weak,manufacturing production and trade in goods continued to be sluggish,and international commodity prices fell as a whole.From the perspective of major economies,the US economy remains resilient,the eurozone and Japan economies have improved modestly,and the major emerging economies have continued to recover.Looking ahead to 2025,the continuation of loose monetary policy will continue to provide a favorable environment for global economic recovery,and China and the United States will continue to be an important force driving world economic growth,but the prospects for world economic recovery are still not optimistic under the continued disruption of risks such as geopolitical conflicts,trade protectionism,debt pressure,and US economic and monetary policy swings.

关 键 词：世界经济 经济预测 货币政策 复苏前景 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]