全球产业链重构:回岸、近岸与友岸的趋势特点分析  

Restructuring of the global industrial chain:analysis of the trend characteristics of “backshore”,“nearshore” and “friendly shore”

作　　者：李元琨 苏庆义[2] Li Yuankun;Su Qingyi

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际贸易研究室

出　　处：《全球化》2025年第2期68-79,135,共13页Globalization

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“美国产业链供应链全球布局调整的机制、趋势与影响研究”(项目编号:24&ZD056);国家社科基金学术团体专项项目“美国对华经贸政策对中国企业高质量创新的影响及对策研究”(项目编号:24SGC062)的部分研究成果。

摘　　要：本文旨在量化评估以“回岸”“近岸”和“友岸”为主要特征的新一轮全球产业链重构发展进程和特点趋势。结果表明,近年来在全球贸易中,近岸、友岸和回岸外包现象开始加速凸显。分经济体来看,美国最早出现显著的回流,新冠疫情后出现显著的近岸和友岸外包趋势;欧洲回岸趋势尚不明显,但政策端在持续加码促进回流,各国均不同程度加强近岸外包,友岸外包则存在分化现象;日韩尚无显著变化。分行业来看,回岸外包里高技术制造业占比最高,近岸和友岸外包则以低技术制造业为主。总体而言,近年来,以美国为主导的全球产业链回岸、近岸和友岸外包加快发展的趋势较为显著。本文认为,中国可采取协同发展、数字化转型、安全化发展和有序跨境布局等措施,应对新一轮全球产业链重构。The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the development process and characteristic trend of the new round of global industrial chain restructuring characterized by "backshore","nearshore" and "friendly shore".The results show that in recent years,the phenomenon of "nearshore","friendly shore" and "backshore" outsourcing has begun to accelerate in global trade.In terms of economies,the United States was the first to see a significant reshoring,and there was a significant trend of "nearshore" and "friendly shore" outsourcing after the COVID-19;the trend of European shore return has not been obvious for a long time,but the policy side has continued to increase the number of people to promote reshoring,and all countries have strengthened " nearshore" to varying degrees,while there is a differentiation phenomenon in friendly offshore outsourcing;there is no significant trend in Japan and South Korea.In terms of industries,high-tech manufacturing accounts for the highest proportion of "backshore" outsourcing,while low-tech manufacturing is the main component of "nearshore" and "friendly shore".Overall,in recent years,the US-led global industrial chain has accelerated its development of "backshore","nearshore" and "friendly shore" outsourcing.This paper argues that China can take measures such as coordinated development,digital transformation,secure development,and orderly cross-border layout to cope with the new round of global industrial chain restructuring.

关 键 词：产业链重构 回岸外包 近岸外包 友岸外包 

分 类 号：F114.4[经济管理—国际贸易]