中国城市技术韧性时空格局演变与影响因素  

Spatiotemporal change of technological resilience in Chinese cities and influencing factors

作　　者：卢冰坤 张学波 马海涛[3] 于伟[1] LU Bingkun;ZHANG Xuebo;MA Haitao;YU Wei(School of Geography and Tourism,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao 276826,Shandong,China;Institute of Yellow River Ecology,Qufu Normal University,Qufu 273165,Shandong,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院,山东日照276826 [2]曲阜师范大学黄河生态研究院,山东曲阜273165 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2025年第3期478-491,共14页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071150,42371213,42471192);山东省泰山学者青年专家支持计划(tsqn202306183);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2024MD041);山东省社科规划研究项目(24CGLJ15)。

摘　　要：随着技术领域的竞争日益加剧,城市迫切需要提升技术研发的韧性水平,以应对外部环境的不确定性冲击。论文基于2001-2016年中国城市创新指数及相关数据,借助经济韧性测度模型评估城市技术韧性水平,分析了时空演变特征与影响因素。结果表明:(1)中国城市技术韧性水平在研究时段内呈现持续提升的趋势,2011年后中国城市技术韧性指数为正值且增速较快。(2)中国高韧性城市经历了从地域性集中向相对均衡转变的过程,长三角地区发展为中国城市技术韧性高—高类型集聚的典型地区。(3)除教育人力资本外,产业结构高级化、经济发展水平、对外开放程度等因素对中国城市技术韧性有显著正向影响。分组回归结果表明,东部地区教育人力资本对技术韧性存在显著抑制作用,中、西部地区提升对外开放水平是促进技术韧性增强的有效途径。(4)形成机制分析表明,技术韧性是在复杂的潜在风险和多元影响因素网络中不断适应和动态演化的。研究结果有助于中国城市更好地应对科技变革和经济波动,为中国城市在全球化竞争中实现长期持续发展提供理论支持。With the increasing competition in the field of technology,cities urgently need to improve their technological resilience to cope with the uncertainty of the external environment.Based on the China Urban Innovation Index and related data from 2001 to 2016,this study assessed the technological resilience levels of cities using an economic resilience measurement model,and analyzed the temporal and spatial change characteristics and influencing factors.The results indicate that:1)The technological resilience levels of cities in China showed a continuous upward trend during the study period,with the urban technological resilience index turning positive after 2011 and increasing at a rapid pace.2)High-resilience cities in China experienced a shift from regional concentration to a relatively balanced distribution,with the Yangtze River Delta emerging as a typical region where cities with high-high technological resilience cluster.3)Besides educational human capital,advancement of industrial structures,economic development level,and degree of openness to the outside world all had significant positive impacts on the technological resilience of cities in China.The results of subgroup regression analysis suggest that in the eastern regions,educational human capital significantly suppressed technological resilience,while in the central and western regions,enhancing the level of openness was an effective way to boost technological resilience.4)The influencing mechanisms analysis showed that technological resilience did not exist in isolation but continuously adapted and evolved dynamically within a complex network of risks and diverse influencing factors.The results of the study will help Chinese cities to better cope with technological changes and economic fluctuations,and provide theoretical support for the long-term sustainable development of cities in the global competition.

关 键 词：技术韧性 技术危机 敏感系数法 影响因素 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济] F291.1