非洲地域功能空间演变的时空分异与驱动机制——基于时序遥感数据和可解释机器学习分析  

Spatiotemporal differentiation and driving mechanisms of territorial functional space change in Africa:Based on time series remote sensing data and interpretable machine learning

作　　者：尹力 魏伟[1,2,3] 李泓锐 张轲 刘立阳[1] 薄立明 YIN Li;WEI Wei;LI Hongrui;ZHANG Ke;LIU Liyang;BO Liming(School of Urban Design,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;China Institute of Development Strategy and Planning,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Center of Hubei Human Habitat Engineering and Technology,Wuhan 430072,China;Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering,Huanghuai University,Zhumadian 463000,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学城市设计学院,武汉430072 [2]武汉大学中国发展战略与规划研究院,武汉430072 [3]湖北省人居环境工程技术研究中心,武汉430072 [4]黄淮学院建筑工程学院,河南驻马店463000

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2025年第3期594-613,共20页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42471304);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(23YJA630003);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2042024kf0029)。

摘　　要：科学认知非洲地域功能空间格局演变过程及形成机制,开展对非土地资源基础性调研工作,对服务国家“走出去”发展战略和构建中非命运共同体具有重要现实意义。论文以中国城镇化、粮食安全和生态安全地域主导功能为空间参考标尺,划分非洲城乡建设—农业生产—生态保护三大地域功能空间,采用时空立方体、空间转型强度分析模型和可解释机器学习解析2002—2022年非洲大陆地域功能空间演变特征及区域差异,并结合关键驱动因素的重要程度和交互作用强度研究演变机制。结果表明:(1)近20年非洲约3.97%的地域功能空间发生结构转型,城乡建设空间剧烈扩张9.71%的同时,人均建设用地规模却减少33.78%,城乡“人口—土地”失衡问题日益凸显;农业生产空间波动式缩减且沿撒哈拉沙漠南缘形成一条明显的剧烈变化带;生态保护空间内部组成结构显著改变但整体呈优化态势。(2)非洲在5°N~15°N之间形成了一条明显的空间结构转型高动态度带,农业生产—生态保护空间的剧烈动态互转现象最为突出,沙漠绿化的同时土地退化仍然明显,导致城乡建设空间扩张相关结构转型规模在大陆尺度下并不显著。(3)社会经济发展、人口增长等因素对非洲大陆全局尺度下地域功能空间结构改变的作用有限,反而大气水汽压、温度、降雨、纬度和地形起伏度等水文条件变化和地形地貌基础起到了决定性作用,非洲地域功能空间格局由多个不同规模量级、转型强度和驱动机理的空间变化过程共同决定。未来中国对非援投及相关空间发展战略的制定需要注重非洲自身空间演变的过程及规律,也需要利用其各类地域功能空间演变的时空分异特征和潜在演变趋势实现区域发展的多维协同。A scientific understanding of the spatial pattern change and formation mechanisms of Africa's territorial functions is crucial for fundamental research on Africa's land resources.It also aligns with China's Going Global strategy and supports the development of a China-Africa community with a shared future.Using China's territorial dominant functions of urbanization,food security,and ecological security as spatial reference benchmarks,this study classified Africa's territorial space into three major functional areas:urban-rural construction,agricultural production,and ecological protection.By applying spatiotemporal cubes,spatial transformation intensity models,and interpretable machine learning,this research analyzed the spatial evolution characteristics and regional disparities of Africa's territorial functions from 2002 to 2022.Furthermore,the study examined the mechanisms behind these changes by exploring the importance and interaction strengths of key driving factors.The results indicate that:1)Over the study period,approximately 3.97%of Africa's territorial functional spaces had undergone structural transformation.Urban-rural construction space had expanded significantly by 9.71%,while the per capita scale of construction land had decreased by 33.78%,highlighting an increasing imbalance between population and available land.Agricultural production space had shown a fluctuating decline,with a distinct zone of drastic change forming along the southern edge of the Sahara Desert,while the internal structure of ecological protection space had significantly changed,albeit in an optimizing trend overall.2)A clear high-dynamic transformation zone had emerged between 5°N and 15°N,where the dynamic mutual transformation between agricultural production and ecological protection spaces was most pronounced.Despite ongoing desert greening efforts,significant land degradation persisted,leading to the expansion-related structural transformations of urban-rural construction space being less prominent on a continental scale

关 键 词：地域功能 时空立方体 可解释机器学习 “一带一路”倡议 非洲 

分 类 号：F113.2[经济管理—国际贸易]