地缘位势视域下中美俄与“什叶派新月”五国地缘关系解析  

A geopotential model perspective:Analysis of the geo-relations between China,the United States,Russia,and the five countries of the Shia Crescent

作　　者：孙林 邵海雁 陆玉麒[1,2] 叶梓 SUN Lin;SHAO Haiyan;LU Yuqi;YE Zi(College of Geography Science,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023,China;School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210023 [2]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京210023 [3]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2025年第3期614-630,共17页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171171)。

摘　　要：中东历来是大国博弈的重要地缘板块,研究中美俄与中东国家的地缘关系演变对理解地区局势和全球地缘格局具有重要作用。论文通过构建地缘位势评价模型分析中美俄在2010-2022年间与中东“什叶派新月”五国地缘关系的时空演变,并运用事件数据分析法对评价模型结果进行验证与解析,得出以下结论:(1)事件比值法与地缘位势模型在反映地缘关系变化上具有较好的拟合性,中美俄在“什叶派新月”地区地缘权力格局演变经历了由“美国主导”(2010-2012年)到“俄罗斯介入”(2013-2017年)再到“中美俄均势”(2018-2022年)三个演化阶段。(2)国别对比分析中,美国对“什叶派新月”五国的地缘权力呈现出波动下降态势;俄罗斯的影响力则表现为总体稳定,局部震荡的格局;中国逐渐由地区局势的被动参与者向主动建构者转变。(3)影响中美俄与五国地缘关系演变的驱动因素分为外缘影响力和内缘阻隔力。外缘影响力中地理位置是本底力,地缘经济是驱动力,地缘军事是显化力,地缘文化是协作力,后三类要素在地理位置的基础上根据作用力“正—负”方向影响地缘关系变动;内缘阻隔力为文化分裂性和政治动荡性。两组要素在驱动系统内部交互影响,构成“一体两面”的驱动机制,共同影响地缘关系演变。The Middle East has consistently served as a crucial geopolitical arena in the strategic maneuvers of major powers.Analyzing the evolution of geopolitical relations between China,the United States(US),Russia,and Middle Eastern countries is essential for comprehending both regional dynamics and the broader global geopolitical landscape.This study constructed a geo-position evaluation model to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of geo-relations between China,US,Russia,and five countries within the Shia Crescent from 2010 to 2022.It employed an event data analysis to validate and analyze results derived from this evaluation model,leading to several key conclusions:1)The event data analysis aligns well with the geopotential model in capturing shifts in geographical relations.The geopolitical power dynamics involving China,US,and Russia in the Shia Crescent have undergone three distinct phases:US dominance(2010-2012),Russian engagement(2013-2017),and a phase characterized by a Sino-US-Russian balance of power(2018-2022).2)In a comparative analysis between these countries,US geopolitical influence over the five countries within the Shia Crescent exhibited a trend of fluctuating decline;Russian influence remained generally stable but experienced localized volatility.Meanwhile,China's role was evolving from that of a passive participant to an active architect shaping regional circumstances.3)Factors driving changes in geopolitical relations between China,US,Russia,and these five countries can be categorized into external influences and internal barriers.External influences include geographic location as a foundational context;geo-economics as a driving force;geo-military aspects as manifestations;and geo-culture serving as a coordination mechanism.These latter three factors impact changes in geo-relations based on their positive or negative directional forces relative to geographic positioning.Internal barriers primarily consist of cultural fragmentation and political instability.Together these two sets of factors inte

关 键 词：地缘位势模型 大国关系 中东地缘政治 “什叶派新月” 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]