产业结构优化升级的多元路径——基于252个地级市的定性比较分析  

Diverse Paths to Optimizing and Upgrading Industrial Structures:A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of 252 Prefecture-level Cities

作　　者：李灵[1] 王雪玮 王琦 刘炳胜 LI Ling;WANG Xuewei;WANG Qi;LIU Bingsheng(College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;School of Economics andManagement,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300130,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300130

出　　处：《科学学与科学技术管理》2025年第3期78-95,共18页Science of Science and Management of S.& T.

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(19BGL209);天津市教委社会科学重大项目(2019JWZD27)。

摘　　要：产业结构优化升级是我国实现经济高质量发展的关键路径之一。然而,各地区在资源禀赋、经济发展水平、市场政府关系等方面存在较大差异,导致我国产业结构优化升级路径呈现出空间非均衡的特征,如何因地制宜推进各地区产业结构优化升级是亟待解决的现实问题。基于复杂系统观,结合多时段QCA和NCA方法,从组态视角分析中国地级市要素、创新、制度逻辑与产业结构优化升级的关联关系以及自然资源、人力资源、资本深化、数据要素、技术创新、政府效率和市场需求水平与产业结构优化升级的复杂驱动关系,探寻产业结构优化升级的复杂机制和实现路径,明晰产业结构优化升级路径动态变化的原因和机理。结果发现:(1)单个变量并不是构成产业结构优化升级的必要条件。(2)时段1存在自然资源—资本—政府驱动型、资本—创新驱动型、人力资源—资本驱动型、资本—市场驱动型四个组态;时段2存在人力资源—资本—创新驱动型、人力资源—资本驱动型、资本—市场驱动型三个组态;时段3存在资本—创新—政府驱动型、人力资源—资本—创新—市场驱动型、资本—创新—市场驱动型三个组态;时段4存在自然资源—人力资源—资本驱动型、人力资源—创新—市场驱动型、创新—市场驱动型、资本—创新驱动型四个组态。(3)资本深化在时段1-3中发挥稳定作用,技术创新则在时段2-4中发挥重要作用,而数据要素在各时段仅发挥辅助作用。(4)人力资源与资本深化的共同作用模式在时段1-2中相对稳定,在时段3逐渐演化为技术创新与资本深化协同发展的模式,并在时段4开始向市场需求主导的技术创新模式演化;市场与政府关系在各时段随着生产要素与技术创新共同演化,在不同时段表现出不同的市场政府关系模式。Optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure is a critical pathway to fostering high-quality economic development in China.However,there are significant regional variations in resource endowment,economic development levels,and market-government relationships.Consequently,the efforts toward optimizing and upgrading China's industrial structure display notable spatial disparities.Addressing these challenges effectively requires tailored approaches that align with local conditions,thus enhancing the advancement of industrial structure optimization and upgrading across different regions.Drawing on these issues,this study develops an analytical framework for the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure by integrating three theoretical perspectives:factor-driven,innovation-driven,and institutional logic.The research utilizes 252 prefecture-level cities in China as case studies,employing multi-temporal Qualitative Comparative Analysis(QCA)and Necessary Condition Analysis(NCA)to decipher the complex causal relationships among various factors—such as natural resources,human resources,capital deepening,data elements,innovation levels,market demand,and government efficiency—and their impact on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.From a configurational perspective,the study assesses whether each variable is a necessary condition for industrial structure optimization and upgrading,identifying diverse pathways and elucidating the roles of both market and government in this process.Moreover,it reveals the configurations of conditions and the mechanisms influencing the differentiation in industrial structure optimization and upgrading among these cities over different time periods.This empirical research provides new insights into the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and high-quality economic development.The study concludes with five key findings.Firstly,it suggests that no individual variable is indispensable for the optimization and upgrading of industrial structures;inst

关 键 词：产业结构 多时段定性比较分析(多时段QCA) 必要条件分析(NCA) 

分 类 号：F120.4[经济管理—世界经济] F270