福利保护还是能力建设:无婚生育的生育率回升作用及其对中国的意义  

Welfare Protection or Capacity Building:The Role of Fertility Recovery in Births-Outside-Marriage and Its Significance for China

作　　者：侯慧丽[1] 王广州[1] Hou Huili;Wang Guangzhou

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100006

出　　处：《清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第2期198-213,241,242,共18页Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“人口老龄化对科技创新的影响机制与战略协同研究”(21&ZD189);“中国社会科学院长城学者计划”(2024CCXZ001)。

摘　　要：第二次人口转变后,西方发达国家生育率持续下降;然而,在20世纪90年代以后部分发达国家生育率又开始回升。对不同类型发达国家的实证研究发现:无婚生育比例的增加是一个重要因素,无婚生育比例每增加10%,总和生育率将增加0.04,而无婚生育比例增加是女性个体能力建设和福利保护共同作用的结果,女性能力建设分值和女性福利保护分值每增加10分,无婚生育比例将分别增加6.43%和1.61%,女性个体能力建设比女性福利保护更能促进无婚生育比例的增加。这一结论对中国改变持续低生育率状态的借鉴意义在于:在中国传统的婚内生育依然是主流的情况下,为提高生育率,一方面要充分发挥传统生育文化的优势,促进婚内生育率的提高;另一方面发挥中国传统文化的包容性特质,在完善女性福利保护的基础上,积极进行女性个体能力建设,为无婚生育的增加留出空间,形成多元生育文化的友好社会环境,是对出现长期、持续极低生育率的未雨绸缪。After the second demographic transition, the fertility rates in Western developed countries continued to decline. However, since the 1990s, the fertility rates in some developed countries began to rebound. Empirical studies on different types of developed countries have found that the increase in the proportion of births-outside-marriage is a significant factor. For every 10% increase in the proportion of births-outside-marriage, the total fertility rate increases by 0. 04. The increase in the proportion of births-outside-marriage is the result of the combined effects of female empowerment and welfare protection. For every 10-point increase in the female empowerment score and the female welfare protection score, the proportion of births-outside-marriage increases by 6. 43% and 1. 61% respectively. Female empowerment is more effective than female welfare protection in promoting the increase in the proportion of births-outside-marriage. However, in China, where the traditional culture of marital childbearing remains the mainstream, on the one hand, it is necessary to fully leverage the advantages of traditional childbearing culture to promote the increase in marital fertility rates. On the other hand, by utilizing the inclusive characteristics of traditional Chinese culture and improving female welfare protection, actively carrying out female empowerment, and leaving room for the increase in births-outside-marriage, a social environment friendly to a diverse fertility culture can be formed. This is a precaution against the long-term and continuous occurrence of extremely low fertility rates.

关 键 词：无婚生育 低生育率 人口转变 女性 个体化 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]